Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▲ 3
Install
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
The odds
30,237median
Nasdaq 100 now 29,529.34 +1.17% 18,50033,500
Median 30,237Middle half 28,216 – 31,773Above today's price 62%
How the odds have moved
Median: 30,237 on Oct 20, 30,237 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18,999.99 or below | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.3M |
| 19,000 to 19,499.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 82.3K | ||
| 19,500 to 19,999.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 70.3K | ||
| 20,000 to 20,499.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 36.0K | ||
| 20,500 to 20,999.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 67.5K | ||
| 21,000 to 21,499.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 77.1K | ||
| 21,500 to 21,999.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 68.3K | ||
| 22,000 to 22,499.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 70.8K | ||
| 22,500 to 22,999.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 77.3K | ||
| 23,000 to 23,499.99 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 79.3K | ||
| 23,500 to 23,999.99 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 65.3K | ||
| 24,000 to 24,499.99 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 93.9K | ||
| 24,500 to 24,999.99 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 91.6K | |
| 25,000 to 25,499.99 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 103.0K | |
| 25,500 to 25,999.99 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 128.5K | |
| 26,000 to 26,499.99 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 108.4K | |
| 26,500 to 26,999.99 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 85.0K | |
| 27,000 to 27,499.99 | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 110.6K |
| 27,500 to 27,999.99 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 83.8K | |
| 28,000 to 28,499.99 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 115.7K | |
| 28,500 to 28,999.99 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 115.2K | |
| 29,000 to 29,499.99 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 133.2K | |
| 29,500 to 29,999.99 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 169.9K | |
| 30,000 to 30,499.99 | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 153.5K |
| 30,500 to 30,999.99 | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 160.1K |
| 31,000 to 31,499.99 | 7% | ▲ 3 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 159.7K |
| 31,500 to 31,999.99 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 160.0K |
| 32,000 to 32,499.99 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 179.2K | |
| 32,500 to 33,000 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 190.9K | |
| 33,000.01 or above | 14% | ▲ 4 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 505.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nasdaq, tech stocks
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All indexes ›S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$778.79high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $778.79 and as low as $752.95.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78043%
- Falls to $76073%
- Falls to $75041%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$774.10high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.10 and as low as $758.67.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77539%
- Falls to $76587%
- Falls to $76056%
Already reached: ↑ $765
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%▲ 2
- Bitcoin18%
- Gold6%▼ 2
S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 19, 2026)
30%Above 7,225
7,2008,075
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.