December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Dec 9 · $4 today · $5.9K traded · $3.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

56%Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 056%
Rate: No change, Dissents: >024%
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >013%▼ 1
Rate: No change, Dissents: 04%▼ 3
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%

How the odds have moved

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0: 46% on Oct 29, 56% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 30, 12 AM ETRate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0: 46% → 55%
- Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Awaits More InformationRV PRO · 3 days ago
- BTC Holds $80,000 Amid Federal Reserve’s Steady Interest RatesCoinfomania · 3 days ago
- IMF says Federal Reserve is ‘appropriately’ keeping close eye on data@959thesportsnut · 4 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0	56%		56¢	57¢	$1.75	6.7K
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0	24%		24¢	25¢	$4.00	6.1K
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0	13%	▼ 1	11¢	15¢	$6.67	3.4K
Rate: No change, Dissents: 0	4%	▼ 3	2¢	7¢	$14.29	116
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.0K
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0	1%			1¢	$100.00	20.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Federal Reserve Releases Interest Rate Decisionpresidentialprayerteam.org · 64 min agoThe Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates at 3.75 to 4 percent after its meeting this week. The central bank issued a 0.25 percent rate increase last month. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that…
Something Is Seriously Wrong at the Federal ReserveAmerican Partisan · 16 h agoPatriotman currently ekes out a survivalist lifestyle in a suburban northeastern state as best as he can. He has varied experience in political science, public policy, biological sciences, and higher education. Proudly Catholic and an…
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged despite elevated inflation concerns101.3 KFDI · 9 h agoThe Federal Reserve opted to maintain its key interest rate on Wednesday, choosing to evaluate incoming economic indicators rather than implementing an immediate policy change following a recent uptick in consumer prices. The decision…
Tech selloff may ease pressure on the Federal Reserve, says BMO economistCrypto Briefing · 15 h agoBMO Capital Markets' Jennifer Lee argues that a cooling AI spending boom could give the Fed more room on rates and inflation The AI boom has been great for chipmakers. It has been less great for anyone trying to keep inflation in check…
Treasury yields ease after Federal Reserve rate holdCNBC · 4 days agoU.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve's October meeting that saw the central bank hold its key interest rate steady. At 6 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 5 basis points lower at…
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75% to 4%Hardware Retailing · 36 h agoAnnie Dameworth October 29, 2026 Industry News, News The Federal Open Market Committee announced it has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The…
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged despite elevated inflationThe Land · 41 h agoFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack voted in favor of hiking rates by a quarter point. The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged Wednesday at about 3.9% despite stubbornly high inflation, as Chairman Kevin Warsh…
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady ahead of midterm electionsFox Business · 4 days agoFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on the central bank's October interest rate decision. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady ahead of midterm elections Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on the central bank's October interest…
Federal Reserve makes interest rate decision ahead of midtermsFox Business · 4 days agoNavy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions. This story will be updated with further details from the Fed's October 2026 interest rate decision. The Federal…
WATCH LIVE: Federal Reserve chair holds briefing after interest rate decisionFox News · 4 days agoFederal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. WATCH LIVE: Federal Reserve chair holds briefing after interest rate decision Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh…
How’s the market? Mortgage rates and the Federal ReserveThe Ukiah Daily Journal · 3 days agoAny time the Federal Reserve changes the federal funds rate, people start making predictions about how it will affect the markets. In September, the Fed raised rates by a quarter point, moving the target from 3.75% to 4.00%. So the…
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady even as inflation remains highCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: October 28, 2026 / 3:11 PM EDT / CBS News The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday after hiking borrowing costs in September to clamp down on inflation. The central bank left the federal funds rate at a…

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

70%25 bps increase

25 bps increase70%
No change28%
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)1%

10 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

51%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting51%▼ 1
April 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting31%▲ 3

4 more

March 2027 Meeting13%▲ 2
January 2027 Meeting9%
December 2026 Meeting1%
October 2026 Meeting<1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

70%chance▼ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

70%No change

No change70%▼ 3
25 bps increase25%
25 bps decrease2%

2 more

50+ bps increase1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Board of Governors

Trading closesDec 9, 2026 1:55 PM ET

Traded$5.9K (38,143 contracts)

Today$4

This week$5.9K

At stake$3.7K

In the news46 headlines today, 1,548 this week

Followed here sinceOct 27, 2026

The rules

If ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.721−1.67%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,580.07−1.82%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it3.973−0.63%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.72+0.17%
SPYSPY · moves with it755.72−1.77%
TLTTLT · moves with it81.84+0.43%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions