State of the economy at the end of 2026

Kalshi Economy › Growth & recession Closes Jan 13, 2027 · $602 today · $48.5K traded · $26.5K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

69%Overheating

Overheating69%▲ 3
Soft landing28%▼ 4
Stagflation2%▲ 1
Slack / disinflation1%

How the odds have moved

Overheating: 65% on Oct 20, 69% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Overheating	69%	▲ 3	68¢	70¢	$1.43	55.6K
Soft landing	28%	▼ 4	28¢	28¢	$3.58	33.9K
Stagflation	2%	▲ 1	2¢	3¢	$40.00	29.9K
Slack / disinflation	1%		0¢	2¢	$62.50	5.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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How high will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index be at EOY 2026?

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFRED CPIAUCSL, FRED UNRATE

Trading closesJan 13, 2027 8:25 AM ET

Traded$48.5K (124,818 contracts)

Today$602

This week$48.5K

At stake$26.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,720.59+0.39%
10Y Yield^TNX · moves with it5.115−0.41%
SPYSPY · moves with it769.38+0.38%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.