ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
98%No change
- No change98%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
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Central banks odds
Every Central banks market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
Trending central banks markets
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
81%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase81%
- No Change18%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
69%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase69%▲ 2
- No change30%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
67%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate67%▲ 9
- Cut 1-25bps36%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Bank of Russia decision in December?
72%No change
- No change72%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease19%▼ 4
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
Bank of England decision in November?
97%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase97%
- No change3%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
81%No change
- No change81%▲ 2
- 25 bps decrease19%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
97%No change
- No change97%
- 25 bps increase2%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
7median
57
Median 7Middle half 6 – 7
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
54%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease54%▼ 27
- No Change23%▲ 6
- 50+ bps decrease7%▲ 7
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
1 more
- 25 bps increase1%▲ 1
South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
43%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate43%▲ 6
- Hike 1-25bps41%▲ 32
- Cut 1-25bps10%▲ 10
- Hike more than 25bps4%▼ 3
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%▲ 1
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
95%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase95%▲ 3
- No change4%▼ 3
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
53%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase53%▲ 8
- No Change44%▼ 9
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
73%No change
- No change73%▲ 4
- 25 bps increase11%
- 50+ bps increase8%▼ 6
- 50+ bps decrease6%▲ 3
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
Which central banks will hike before 2027?
96%Bank of England
- Bank of England96%
- Bank of Canada92%
- Riksbank84%▲ 6
- Swiss National Bank11%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
56%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase56%▲ 4
- No change38%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase5%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
66%No change
- No change66%▲ 8
- 25 bps increase20%▼ 10
- 50+ bps increase4%
- 25 bps decrease3%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of England decision in December?
55%No change
- No change55%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase31%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease6%
- 50+ bps increase5%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease4%
Sweden rate decision in November (Nov 4, 2026 meeting)
61%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps61%▼ 1
- Maintain current rate37%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
- Cut 1-25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
Colombia rate decision in October (Oct 30, 2026 meeting)
53%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate53%▼ 4
- Hike 1-25bps34%▲ 4
- Hike more than 25bps7%▼ 4
- Cut more than 25bps2%
1 more
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?
0median
05
Median 0Middle half 0 – 0
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
58%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease58%▲ 1
- No Change23%
- 50+ bps decrease17%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase2%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase2%
Bank of Korea decision in November?
70%25 bps hike
- 25 bps hike70%▲ 1
- No Change23%▼ 1
- 50+ bps hike4%▼ 1
- 25 bps cut3%
1 more
- 50+ bps cut1%
Hungary rate decision in November (Nov 17, 2026 meeting)
84%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate84%▲ 3
- Cut 1-25bps8%▼ 3
- Hike 1-25bps4%▼ 2
- Cut more than 25bps3%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions