ECB Interest Rates in Oct 2026
96%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)96%
- Hike <=25bps3%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
Install
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
The odds
98%No change
- No change98%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 96% on Oct 20, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 98% | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | $284K | |
| 25 bps increase | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | $212K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $36K | |||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $40.8K | |||
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $86.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026Cut 50+ bpPolymarket <1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026HoldPolymarket 98%ForecastEx 77%21 pts apart
ECB Decision (Oct 29, 2026)
77%Hold
- Hold77%
- Hike 50+ bp8%
- Hike 25 bp7%
- Cut 25 bp7%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 97%Polymarket 98%1 pts apart
European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
97%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate97%
- Hike 1-25bps2%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikesThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against… -
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto MarketsHome > Markets > Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto Markets The crypto market faces a week packed with major economic announcements, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision… -
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions, Coinbase earnings: Crypto Week AheadCrypto Week Ahead is a comprehensive list of what's coming up in the world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, as well as the major macroeconomic events that will influence digital asset markets. Central bank policy decisions dominate the… -
Roger Ferguson: Fed likely to hold rates this week, but two hikes are necessary to tackle inflationFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's two-day policy meeting this week, state of the economy, the central bank's inflation fight, rate path outlook, and more. Roger Ferguson: Fed likely… -
FOMC Meeting Puts Fed Interest Rate Decision in Focus as Inflation RisesUS inflation accelerated in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.7% year over year. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by businesses, increased 1.3% from August. Higher energy… -
Gold gains on softer oil prices; Fed decision in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 0342 GMT, after hitting its… -
U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decisionU.S. Treasury yields inched lower Monday as investors look ahead to the central bank's interest rate decision and await a flurry of economic data this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point to 4.98%… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Brazil decision in November?
65%No Change
- No Change65%▲ 48
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 61
- 25 bps increase5%▲ 5
2 more
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%▲ 1
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
52%No Change
- No Change52%▲ 28
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 38
- 50+ bps increase13%▲ 11
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase2%
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
89%No change
- No change89%▲ 15
- 25 bps decrease11%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate17%
- Hike >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
69%No change
- No change69%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase18%▲ 7
- 50+ bps increase7%▼ 2
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease4%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease2%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions