European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Thu 9:14 AM ET · $1 today · $20.1K traded · $8.2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

97%Maintain current rate
  • Maintain current rate97%
  • Hike 1-25bps2%
  • Cut 1-25bps1%▼ 1
  • Cut more than 25bps<1%
  • Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 95% on Oct 20, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Maintain current rate 97% 97¢ 98¢ $1.02 19.9K
Hike 1-25bps 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 24.2K
Cut 1-25bps 1% ▼ 1 2¢ $50.00 15.4K
Cut more than 25bps <1% 1¢ $100.00 5.8K
Hike more than 25bps <1% ▼ 1 1¢ $100.00 1.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

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The same question on Polymarket

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The news: European Central Bank

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  • Currency markets subdued ahead of pivotal central bank weekCNBC · 11 h agoMajor currencies traded in tight ranges on Monday to begin a busy week of central bank decisions and corporate earnings, while a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on the dollar. Oil prices eased, with Brent crude futures…
  • BOJ, Fed expected to leave rates unchanged this weekNHK WORLD · 9 h agoFormer Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo has died. He was 90 years old. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a two-day policy meeting that starts on Thursday. The BOJ raised the rate in…
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1200 yet retains bearish tone below 100-day SMAFXStreet · 9 h agoThe EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1220 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Euro (EUR) as US Treasury bond yields drop in extended rally. All eyes will be on the US Federal…
  • Fed set to lead G7 trio in hawkish rate pauseThe Star · 8 h agoWASHINGTON: The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its peers in the eurozone and Japan will probably keep interest rates steady in the coming week, opting to bide their time before potential further hikes. Three days of decisions starting on…
  • Euro edges higher above 1.1200 despite French debt worriesFXStreet · 13 h agoThe EUR/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.1220 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid concerns over French unrest and political risks. Germany’s IFO…
  • Dow Drops 1.2% as Fed Meets Wednesday | Global Economy, Oct 26The Rio Times · 10 h agoThe Federal Reserve is all but certain to leave its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, but the real debate has shifted to December. Preliminary US GDP for the third quarter is forecast at 3.2% annualised, a sharp acceleration from…
  • China stocks slip as tech shares lead declines, before key central bank meetingsBrecorder · 9 h agoChina stocks, particularly tech shares, slipped amid regional weakness and investor caution ahead of major central bank meetings. Economic concerns and market volatility also contributed to the decline. SHANGHAI: China stocks slipped on…
  • Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause to leave scope for December hike@959thesportsnut · 11 h agoTOKYO, Oct 26 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will likely declare victory in a nearly 14-year battle to hit its 2% inflation target at its policy meeting on Friday and emphasise the risks prices could overshoot, signaling the chance of a…
  • China’s yuan climbs to fresh 4-year high ahead of key policy meetingsStevens Point · 11 h agoSHANGHAI, Oct 26 (Reuters) – China’s yuan climbed to a fresh four-year high against the dollar on Monday, extending its longest winning streak since May, as softer oil prices and US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback, ​ahead of key…
  • Stocks trade cautiously in Asia, Brent off six-month topBrecorder · 12 h agoGlobal stock markets traded cautiously as oil eased, ahead of central bank meetings and major corporate earnings, testing investor confidence in the AI boom amidst inflation concerns. SYDNEY: Stock markets traded cautiously on Monday as…
  • ECB official sees digital euro as key to protecting EU ‘sovereignty’Cointelegraph · 24 h agoPiero Cipollone said the bloc is on track to test real transactions in 2027 and roll out a digital euro as early as 2029, pending legislation this year. European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said the digital euro…
  • Morning Bid: Elections, central banks and earnings on the menu@959thesportsnut · 10 h agoA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It’s not been a good start to the week for right-wing politicians, with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva winning ​a fourth term and Serbia’s Aleksandar…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions