Bank of Canada Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
72%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp72%
- Hold20%
- Cut 25 bp8%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Install
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
The odds
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate17%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 72% on Oct 20, 81% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETHike 25bps: 70% → 81%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 81% | ▲ 1 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 212.2K |
| Maintains rate | 17% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 299.9K |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.4K | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 24.2K | ||
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?Hike 25 bpKalshi 81%ForecastEx 72%9 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?Hike 25 bpKalshi 81%Polymarket 82%1 pts apart
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
82%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase82%▲ 1
- No Change17%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada
Search ›-
Bank of Canada: Gradual return to neutral – TD SecuritiesTD Securities’ macro team, led by Andrew Kelvin and Robert Both, does not share market conviction for an October Bank of Canada rate hike. They expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% now, then deliver 25bp increases in December and January… -
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) Earns “Outperform” Rating from Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM – Get Free Report)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reissued by Royal Bank Of Canada in a research report issued on Thursday, Benzinga reports… -
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) Given New $125.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT – Free Report) had its price objective decreased by Royal Bank Of Canada from $130.00 to $125.00 in a report issued on Thursday,Benzinga reports. Royal Bank Of… - International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) Stock Rating Reaffirmed as “Outperform” by Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM – Get Free Report)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating restated by analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada in a report issued on Thursday, Benzinga reports…
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Weatherford International (NASDAQ:WFRD) Given New $123.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 Weatherford International (NASDAQ:WFRD – Free Report) had its price target trimmed by Royal Bank Of Canada from $124.00 to $123.00 in a report published on Thursday,Benzinga reports. The firm… -
Bank of Canada: Preemptive tightening focus – RBC"In our view, the case for the central bank continuing to wait on the sidelines remains compelling. The Canadian economy is improving, but still not strong. There is sufficient slack, in our view, that will slow inflation passthrough ."… -
Public Storage’s (PSA) Sector Perform Rating Reiterated at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Sarita Garza on Oct 23rd, 2026 Royal Bank Of Canada restated their sector perform rating on shares of Public Storage (NYSE:PSA – Free Report) in a research report sent to investors on Tuesday morning,Benzinga reports. The… -
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Why the Oct. 28 interest rate decision is shaping up to be the ‘most dramatic’ in agesThe Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision Oct. 28 as inflation reaches 3.1 per cent and analysts differ on whether rates could rise. The Bank of Canada will be announcing its latest interest rate on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Financial… -
The Bank of Canada at an Inflection Point: Inflation Fears Live onWe are now pencilling in the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate hike of 25 basis points since March 2022 on Wednesday as it faces a pivotal decision amid evolving economic conditions. But, we have very low conviction on the idea of a… -
PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) Given New $110.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Kim Johansen on Oct 23rd, 2026 Check Out Our Latest Analysis on PHM Here are the key news stories impacting PulteGroup this week: PulteGroup, Inc is a major U.S. homebuilding company that designs, builds and sells homes for a… - Bank of Canada to raise rates to 2.50% on October 28 and once again by end-March: Reuters pollBENGALURU, Oct 23 (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada will raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28 and follow with one more hike by the end of March to pre-empt any further rise in inflation expectations, according to…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
52%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate52%
- Hike 25bps46%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps1%▲ 1
2 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
81%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease81%▼ 1
- No Change17%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase<1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase27%▼ 6
- 50+ bps increase4%▲ 2
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%▲ 2
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
40%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate40%▼ 11
- Hike 1-25bps36%▲ 22
- Hike more than 25bps8%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
68%No change
- No change68%▲ 7
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease6%
2 more
- 25 bps increase4%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%
Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%
- Hike 25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.