Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▲ 1
- No change32%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
The odds
55%No change
- No change55%▼ 13
- 25 bps increase39%▲ 23
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 70% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 PM ETNo change: 66% → 56%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 55% | ▼ 13 | 47¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | $10K |
| 25 bps increase | 39% | ▲ 23 | 30¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | $6.2K |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $821 |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $808 | |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
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Australia's Credit Card Tax Ban Fiasco: Government Knew in July, Businesses Kept in DarkThe Australian government is facing mounting criticism after conceding it knew as early as July that the tax office planned to stop accepting credit card payments, yet small businesses were not informed until the eve of the ban taking…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions