Reserve Bank of Australia Decision (Nov 3, 2026)
59%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp59%
- Hold36%
- Cut 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
The odds
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▲ 1
- No change32%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 26% on Oct 20, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 8 PM ET25 bps increase: 43% → 56%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 66% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 67¢ | $1.50 | $74K |
| No change | 32% | ▲ 2 | 31¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | $78.8K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $25.3K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $12.9K | |||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $23.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberHike 25 bpPolymarket 67%ForecastEx 59%8 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 66%Polymarket 67%1 pts apart
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)
66%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps66%▼ 1
- Maintain current rate33%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All central banks ›Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
55%No change
- No change55%▼ 13
- 25 bps increase39%▲ 23
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
85%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase85%▲ 3
- No Change15%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
98%No change
- No change98%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
87%No change
- No change87%▼ 5
- 25 bps decrease12%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
58%No Change
- No Change58%▼ 16
- 25 bps decrease32%▲ 14
- 25 bps increase4%▲ 2
2 more
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
60%No change
- No change60%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase19%▼ 5
- 50+ bps increase10%▲ 2
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions