Reserve Bank of Australia Decision (Nov 3, 2026)
59%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp59%
- Hold36%
- Cut 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Install
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)
The odds
63%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps63%▼ 4
- Maintain current rate33%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 1-25bps: 22% on Oct 20, 63% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETHike 1-25bps: 40% → 56%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 63% | ▼ 4 | 58¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 16.4K |
| Maintain current rate | 33% | ▼ 1 | 32¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 20.1K |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.9K | ||
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.2K | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 65%ForecastEx 59%6 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 33%Polymarket 31%2 pts apart
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 3
- No change31%
- 50+ bps increase1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia
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Bruce Brammall: Are you really to blame for your own mortgage pain?The West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. Australian mortgage holders are fine The Reserve Bank of Australia says so And… -
An Overview of Deposit Products in the Current Economic ClimateModern vehicles are packed with technology designed to keep us safe, yet human behaviour and… The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% in July 2026, encouraging many commercial banks to maintain relatively… - Australian central banker says policy working, but inflation outlook worseSYDNEY: A top Australian central banker on Wednesday said tighter monetary policy was working to slow the economy but the inflation outlook had still worsened, leaving him unsure whether interest rates would need to rise further. Speaking…
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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls challenge SMA cluster, eye 0.7100The Australian Dollar finished Friday’s session with gains of over 0.22% and the week up by more than 1.20%, with the pair reclaiming the 0.7000 figure and poised to test a confluence of key resistance levels within the 0.7000-0.7100… -
Australian Dollar extends gains on RBA rate hike expectations ahead of Fed decisionAUD/USD extends its gains on Friday, trading around 0.7035 at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains a slight advantage against the US Dollar (USD), supported by expectations of further monetary… -
Australian Dollar edges up against US Dollar ahead of US flash PMI dataThe Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.7018 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade on Friday. The Aussie pair ticks higher as the Australian Dollar outperforms amid firm expectations that the… -
Commonwealth Bank Shares Jump 3% as Investors Flee Tech Stocks for Safety of Australia's Biggest LenderShares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose more than 3% on Friday, as investors moved money out of mining and technology stocks and into the country's largest bank following a sharp sell-off on Wall Street. Commonwealth Bank shares… -
Financial Innovation Committee Seeks Expressions of InterestThe Albanese Government is seeking expressions of interest from financial sector leaders and experts to join the new Financial Innovation Committee. The Committee will bring together government, regulators and industry to identify and… - Treasurer Jim Chalmers accuses Opposition of talking down economy as big bank tips Sydney house prices to tankTreasurer Jim Chalmers says the Opposition is politically profiting from high inflation, after a big four bank predicted a Melbourne Cup day rate hike and big house prices falls by the end of next year. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has accused…
- Australian Dollar losses steam at 0.7000 as PMIs signal a decelerationThe Australian Dollar retreats 0.17% against the US Dollar on Thursday as sentiment soured on US tech stocks falling on worries about AI valuations, while Oil surged on an escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7017…
- Weak Tech Earnings Pressure the US Dollar as Central Bank Divergence Shapes Forex MarketsThe US dollar is facing renewed pressure as disappointing earnings from major technology companies raise concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment boom. Meanwhile, expectations of further monetary…
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Agents brace for tougher deals as fifth rate hike looms23 October 2026 • 5 minute read The RBA’s inflation warning has put another rate hike in the firing line, throwing property deals into disarray and forcing agents to reset vendor expectations as buyers face shrinking borrowing power. A…
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Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
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Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
70%No change
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions