Bank of Japan Decision in October?
97%No change
- No change97%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
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Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
The odds
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%
- Hike 25bps3%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 94% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 25.3K | |
| Hike 25bps | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 13.5K |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 952 | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 967 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 96%Polymarket 97%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Japan
Search ›- Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to 1.25%, A Three-Decade PeakJapan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, announced on Friday it would elevate its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, representing the country’s highest borrowing cost in more than three decades and the institution’s second rate increase…
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Too late to ask, but what changes when the Bank of Japan raises interest rates?—Savings, loans, salaries. Financial news is directly connected to household budgets. An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is a policy that raises interest rates and aims to stabilize prices, thereby influencing economic activity… -
What to Watch at the Bank of Japan’s 30 October MeetingFor US investors and anyone exposed to the yen or emerging-market currencies, the real risk is not the rate itself but the guidance that accompanies it. This analysis explains what the Bank of Japan is likely to do at its October meeting… -
FPIs Pull Out ₹48,056 Crore From Indian Equities In October, High Crude Prices And Middle East Tensions Trigger SellingNew Delhi: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 48,056 crore from Indian equities in October so far, driven by elevated crude oil prices, Middle East tensions, inflation concerns and uncertainty over corporate earnings. The… -
Peter Schiff’s ‘$75K Bitcoin call’ meets a vital week: Fed, inflation, and ETF outflows loomIs Bitcoin’s recent pullback just the start of a bigger crash? The last 24 hours have been a reality check for investors. However, looking at how the upcoming week could unfold, this pullback might turn out to be more bullish than bearish… -
Key Market Events for the Week of October 26–30, 2026Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead —Fed decision The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its rate at 3.75–4.00 percent on Wednesday, so its guidance is the main event for global risk appetite. —Chile rate Chile’s central bank decides on… -
Things to Check First in an 'Era with Interest Rates'—Thinking Separately About Deposits, Borrowing, and InvestmentsTo be honest, for a long time, I lived my life barely paying attention to bank interest rates.I just left my money in the account where my salary was deposited.Since we lived in an era of near-zero interest rates for so long, that never… - Bank of Japan warns of risks from AI market shock, cyberattacksBy Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan warned on Friday of rising risks caused by AI, including growing cybersecurity threats and potential market shocks, that could spill over to the country’s…
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Interest on Tokyo promissory notes rose by 20% in the autumn of 1919—exchange rates in Paris moved in the same month. Is the cause the same?When you hear in today's news that "both interest rates and exchange rates have moved," don't you think of one major event? In the autumn of 1919 (Taisho 8), over 100 years ago, four sets of figures were moving in the same month. The first… -
Binance logs its biggest hourly stablecoin exodus of October as Bitcoin slidesOn-chain trackers flagged the roughly $50 million exodus hours after spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a second straight day of outflows near $137.9 million, with 46 of 50 tracked major crypto assets trading lower. Nearly $50 million left Binance… -
Japan's bond yields put Bitcoin back in the yen carry trade crosshairsJapan's two-year bond yield hit a 31-year high this week, raising the cost of yen-funded carry trades that help prop up Bitcoin, just as the Fed under Kevin Warsh meets a day ahead of the Bank of Japan. A 31-year high in a Japanese bond… -
Berkshire Hathaway, Blackstone in gainers; HSBC, Globe Life among losers: week's financials wrapWall Street closed the week mixed as a sharp spike in volatility reflected fresh tech struggles, while investors continued to digest hotter-than-expected CPI data and the latest bank earnings. State Street Financial Sel Sec SPDR ETF XLF…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
84%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps84%▲ 14
- Maintain current rate16%▼ 11
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut 25bps<1%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▼ 1
- Maintains rate18%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
62%No Change
- No Change62%▲ 44
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 61
- 50+ bps increase6%▲ 5
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease2%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase1%▲ 1
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
50%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease50%▼ 8
- No Change42%▲ 20
- 50+ bps increase3%▲ 2
2 more
- 25 bps increase3%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 15
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
67%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate67%▲ 9
- Cut 1-25bps36%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps1%
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions