Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
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Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
72%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps72%▼ 14
- Maintain current rate23%▲ 7
- Cut more than 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps1%▲ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 70% on Oct 20, 72% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 72% | ▼ 14 | 71¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 3.3K |
| Maintain current rate | 23% | ▲ 7 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 954 |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 241 | |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 241 | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 335 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bank of Japan
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Bank of Japan Head Office Tour: Experience & ImpressionsDid you know that you can tour the Bank of Japan?I was aware of it, but I kept putting it off, thinking, 'I'll go someday.' I finally went, so I'm writing down my experience and impressions. It is by advance reservation only, and you must… - Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to 1.25%, A Three-Decade PeakJapan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, announced on Friday it would elevate its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, representing the country’s highest borrowing cost in more than three decades and the institution’s second rate increase…
- Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause to leave scope for December hikeTOKYO, Oct 26 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will likely declare victory in a nearly 14-year battle to hit its 2% inflation target at its policy meeting on Friday and emphasise the risks prices could overshoot, signaling the chance of a…
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Too late to ask, but what changes when the Bank of Japan raises interest rates?—Savings, loans, salaries. Financial news is directly connected to household budgets. An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is a policy that raises interest rates and aims to stabilize prices, thereby influencing economic activity… -
Daily Morning Report (October 26, 2026) This week is a busy one, with the FOMC, Bank of Japan monetary policy, and earnings announcements from major US tech companies.In the crude oil market, North Sea Brent futures settled at $116.72 per barrel on October 23, up 3.14% from the previous day. WTI crude oil futures also finished trading at $103.27. Attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis and reported oil… -
Is the Bank of Japan Raising Rates Again? How Much Will a 30 Million Yen Mortgage Increase Monthly? A Thorough Comparison at 1%, 1.5%, and 2% Interest Rates!What I am concerned about this time is the impact on mortgages. The Bank of Japan already raised its policy interest rate from around 1.00% to around 1.25% on September 18. Furthermore, the latest Consumer Price Index released on October… -
What to Watch at the Bank of Japan’s 30 October MeetingFor US investors and anyone exposed to the yen or emerging-market currencies, the real risk is not the rate itself but the guidance that accompanies it. This analysis explains what the Bank of Japan is likely to do at its October meeting… - Bank of Japan warns of risks from AI market shock, cyberattacksBy Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan warned on Friday of rising risks caused by AI, including growing cybersecurity threats and potential market shocks, that could spill over to the country’s…
- Bank of Japan's Himino signals readiness to raise borrowing costsBank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tokyo, Japan, June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon TOKYO, Oct 21 : Japan's underlying inflation is quite close to the central bank's 2 per cent target…
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The Japanese Yen barely moves as a Bank of Japan deputy talks up inflation riskDeputy Governor Himino said upside risks to inflation remain high and that adjusting policy too late could let them materialise. He described financial conditions as still accommodative, with real interest rates low and bank lending… -
Bank of Japan Projected to Maintain Quarterly Rate Hikes to Contain Inflation RisksFormer Bank of Japan executive director Eiji Maeda forecasts a steady pace of interest rate increases, projecting the central bank will reach a neutral rate of 1.75 percent by next spring. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its benchmark… - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino calls for further rate hikes — Channel NewsAsiaBank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryōzō Himino said the central bank should continue raising interest rates due to high inflation risks. Core inflation in Japan is close to the regulator’s 2% target, while financial conditions remain…
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All central banks ›Bank of Brazil decision in November?
65%No Change
- No Change65%▲ 49
- 25 bps decrease22%▼ 60
- 25 bps increase5%▲ 5
2 more
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%▲ 1
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
52%No Change
- No Change52%▲ 28
- 25 bps decrease19%▼ 40
- 50+ bps increase12%▲ 11
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase2%
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 14
- 25 bps decrease11%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate17%
- Hike >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions