Bank of Canada Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
46%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp46%
- Hold40%
- Cut 25 bp13%
- Cut 50+ bp2%
1 more
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
Install
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
The odds
52%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate52%
- Hike 25bps46%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps1%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintains rate: 40% on Oct 20, 52% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 11 PM ETMaintains rate: 40% → 52%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintains rate | 52% | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 9.7K | |
| Hike 25bps | 46% | ▲ 1 | 46¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 9.2K |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.9K | |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 67.00 | |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 52%ForecastEx 40%12 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 52%Polymarket 50%2 pts apart
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
50%No Change
- No Change50%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase47%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada
Search ›-
National Bank of Canada (OTCMKTS:NTIOF) Stock Now Rated “Hold” by Wall Street AnalystsPosted by Sarita Garza on Oct 24th, 2026 Shares of National Bank of Canada (OTCMKTS:NTIOF – Get Free Report) have been assigned a consensus rating of “Hold” from the eight brokerages that are presently covering the company, MarketBeat.com… -
Amex Exploration Now Off Restriction at National Bank of CanadaAmex Exploration is now off restriction at National Bank of Canada after the company closed a C$59 million private placement, the bank said Thursday. The bank gave Amex an outperform rating and... Amex Gold Mining Inc. Amex Exploration Now… -
GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) Stock Gets Price Target Cut from Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Michael Walen on Oct 24th, 2026 GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE – Free Report) had its price objective reduced by Royal Bank Of Canada from $400.00 to $375.00 in a research note published on Wednesday, Marketbeat Ratings reports. They… -
Bank of Canada: Gradual return to neutral – TD SecuritiesTD Securities’ macro team, led by Andrew Kelvin and Robert Both, does not share market conviction for an October Bank of Canada rate hike. They expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% now, then deliver 25bp increases in December and January… -
Amex Exploration Maintains Outperform Rating, $3.00 Price Target at National Bank of CanadaNational Bank of Canada on Thursday reiterated its outperform rating on the shares of Amex Exploration and its $3.00 price target after the company provided updates on its Perron project in... Amex Gold Mining Inc. Amex Exploration… -
Visteon (NASDAQ:VC) Price Target Cut to $100.00 by Analysts at Royal Bank Of CanadaVisteon (NASDAQ:VC – Free Report) had its price target trimmed by Royal Bank Of Canada from $127.00 to $100.00 in a research note issued to investors on Friday,Benzinga reports. The brokerage currently has an outperform rating on the… - Amex Exploration Maintained at Outperform with a $2.50 Price Target at National Bank of CanadaNational Bank of Canada on Tuesday reiterated its outperform rating on the shares of Amex Exploration and its $2.50 price target. Amex recently announced the results of one hole drilled in the... Amex Gold Mining Inc. Amex Exploration…
- Is the Bank of Canada about to make a big mistake?Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is seen during a news conference in Ottawa in June. Markets increasingly think the central bank will nudge rates up at its meeting on Wednesday.The Canadian Press/The Canadian Press Nothing is set in…
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International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) Earns “Outperform” Rating from Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM – Get Free Report)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reissued by Royal Bank Of Canada in a research report issued on Thursday, Benzinga reports… -
Royal Bank of Canada Issues Callable Contingent Coupon Notes Linked to Netflix Stock Maturing in 2028On October 23, 2026, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) filed a free writing prospectus detailing terms for Issuer Callable Contingent Coupon Barrier Notes tied to Netflix, Inc. common stock. The notes have a ... On October 23, 2026, Royal Bank of… -
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) Given New $125.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT – Free Report) had its price objective decreased by Royal Bank Of Canada from $130.00 to $125.00 in a report issued on Thursday,Benzinga reports. Royal Bank Of… - International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) Stock Rating Reaffirmed as “Outperform” by Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 23rd, 2026 International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM – Get Free Report)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating restated by analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada in a report issued on Thursday, Benzinga reports…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate17%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
81%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease81%▼ 1
- No Change18%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase<1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase27%▼ 6
- 50+ bps increase4%▲ 3
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%▲ 2
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
40%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate40%▼ 11
- Hike 1-25bps36%▲ 30
- Hike more than 25bps7%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
68%No change
- No change68%▲ 7
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease6%
2 more
- 25 bps increase4%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%
Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%
- Hike 25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.