Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
53%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate53%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps46%
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps1%▲ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
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Bank of Canada Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
The odds
46%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp46%
- Hold40%
- Cut 25 bp13%
- Cut 50+ bp2%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25 bp: 37% on Oct 20, 46% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 46% | $2.18 | 20.00 | |||
| Hold | 40% | $2.52 | 59.00 | |||
| Cut 25 bp | 13% | $7.93 | 40.00 | |||
| Cut 50+ bp | 2% | $55.56 | 10.00 | |||
| Hike 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 53%ForecastEx 40%13 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Canada Decision in December?Cut 25 bpPolymarket 1%ForecastEx 13%12 pts apart
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
49%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase49%▲ 4
- No Change46%▼ 7
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada Decision
Search ›-
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Why the Oct. 28 interest rate decision is shaping up to be the ‘most dramatic’ in agesThe Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision Oct. 28 as inflation reaches 3.1 per cent and analysts differ on whether rates could rise. The Bank of Canada will be announcing its latest interest rate on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Financial… -
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief — Wednesday, October 21, 2026USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for October 21: Alberta votes to stay in Canada, US alleges election interference, Bank of Canada decides Oct 28. North America’s temper on Wednesday is a study in defensive unity, as Canada absorbs… -
Bank of Canada interest rate forecast: What to expect on October 28By MoneySense Editors on October 22, 2026 Estimated reading time: 5 minutes Markets are betting the Bank of Canada will end its year-long pause on rates. One mortgage expert isn't so sure. The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest… -
Big Banks Are Split on a Rate Hike: What That Means for Your 2027 Mortgage RenewalRBC and TD see different rate paths, making a payment rehearsal more useful than betting your renewal on either forecast. Mortgage forecasts would be a lot easier to plan around if the banks agreed with each other. But, of course, they…
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81%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease81%▼ 1
- No Change18%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
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Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate18%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
65%No change
- No change65%▲ 11
- 25 bps increase26%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase4%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
40%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate40%▼ 11
- Hike 1-25bps36%▲ 26
- Hike more than 25bps7%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
68%No change
- No change68%▲ 7
- 25 bps decrease21%▼ 2
- 50+ bps decrease6%
2 more
- 25 bps increase3%
- 50+ bps increase2%
Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%
- Hike 25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.