ECB Decision (Oct 29, 2026)
75%Hold
- Hold75%
- Hike 50+ bp9%
- Hike 25 bp8%
- Cut 25 bp8%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Install
ECB Interest Rates in Oct 2026
The odds
94%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)94%
- Hike <=25bps5%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Cut >25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
How the odds have moved
0bps (Unchanged): 95% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0bps (Unchanged) | 94% | 94¢ | $1.06 | |||
| Hike <=25bps | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | ||
| Cut <=25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Cut >25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Hike >25bps | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- ECB Decision (Oct 29, 2026)HoldForecastEx 75%Crypto.com 94%19 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 96%Crypto.com 94%2 pts apart
European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps2%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%▲ 1
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026HoldPolymarket 96%Crypto.com 94%2 pts apart
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
96%No change
- No change96%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase4%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Explained: What the U.S. Federal Reserve does, and why it matters to AustraliaThe Federal Reserve, often called “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States. Like the Reserve Bank of Australia, its best-known job is setting interest rates. But because the U.S. economy is the largest in the world and the U.S… -
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building is seen in WashingtonThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper - Judge dismisses $100 million Moody lawsuit against Galveston attorney - Latitude Margaritaville developer closes on 1,318-acre Texas City tract - Mystery mailers targeting Texas families raise… -
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… -
Federal Reserve seen holding rates in October, then hiking in DecemberFederal Reserve policymakers are expected to pause on interest rates at their October meeting even as inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays firm. Economists surveyed this week increasingly see a December hike as the more… -
Dollar-Yen Stuck in Upper 157 Range as FOMC, BOJ Meeting Keep Trading RangeboundThe dollar-yen pair continues to lack direction, trading within a range of roughly 157.50-159.00 yen. In late New York trading last week, the yen was sold on rising U.S. long-term interest rates and higher crude oil prices, with the pair… -
Gold eases as investors await Fed signals on rate pathGold slipped in early Asian trade on Thursday as market participants looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for guidance on the trajectory of interest rates. Fundamentals Spot... S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index Gold… -
Fed, FDIC extend deadline for comments on extension of credit to bank officialsThe Federal Reserve and the FDIC have extended until Nov. 4 the deadline for comments on a proposal governing extension of credit by banks to their executive officers, directors, principal shareholders, and their related interests. “Since… -
BOE’s Bailey Defends Speaking Out Over Trump Attacks on Powell(Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was right to defend then-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from Donald Trump's attacks and would do so again. Trump Uses Slur to Defend GOP Senator in Combative Speech Punches… -
Dollar dips as traders wait on Fed; Aussie gains(Updated in New York afternoon time) NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The US dollar index dipped on Wednesday as traders weighed renewed oil-driven inflation risks and waited for next week's Federal Reserve meeting, while the Australian dollar… -
Gold Swings as Traders Assess Fed Rate Path Amid Mideast Worries(Bloomberg) -- Gold fluctuated as traders assessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path on the back of potential renewed hositilities in the Middle East. The Department of State issued an ordered departure for… -
Gold Edges Lower as Traders Weigh Middle East Signals, Fed Rate Path(Bloomberg) -- Gold dipped as a flareup in Middle East hostilities raised inflation risks, even as the Federal Reserve is still expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term. Bullion was trading at around $4,120 an ounce, after… -
Business inflation expectations decelerate in October: Atlanta FedTradingView Business inflation expectations decelerate in October: Atlanta Fed Year-ahead business inflation expectations stood at +2.3% in October, vs. +2.4% in September, according to a survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of…
Related markets
All central banks ›Fed Decision in Dec 2026
77%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps77%
- 0bps (Unchanged)18%
- Hike >25bps4%
2 more
- Cut <=25bps3%
- Cut >25bps2%
ECB Interest Rates in Dec 2026
79%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps79%
- Hike >25bps13%
- 0bps (Unchanged)12%
2 more
- Cut <=25bps7%
- Cut >25bps3%
Bank of Russia decision in October?
87%No Change
- No Change87%▼ 3
- Decrease12%▲ 2
- Increase<1%
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
82%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase82%▲ 13
- No Change16%▼ 14
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
56%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase56%▲ 28
- No change43%▼ 30
- 50+ bps increase1%▲ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Bank of England decision in November?
97%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase97%▲ 4
- No change3%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.