10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.15%median
4.93%5.25%
Median 5.15%Middle half 5.1% – 5.17%
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TLT TLT prediction markets
Every prediction market about TLT: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
On what it tracks
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
44%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.73%median
5.6%6.1%
Median 5.73%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
15%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
5%Below 1.0%
0%4.8%
30-year mortgage rate this week (Oct 22, 2026)
7.31%median
7.22%7.49%
Median 7.31%Middle half 7.3% – 7.33%
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.08%median
4.99%5.11%
Median 5.08%Middle half 5% – 5.09%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
29%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
17%5.32%
5.29%5.65%
How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.43%median
5.34%5.44%
Median 5.43%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
30%Below 5.25%
5.2%5.46%
30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.48%median
5.28%5.54%
Median 5.48%Middle half 5.45% – 5.52%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
13%5.70%
5.67%6.05%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
5.07%median
4.89%5.25%
Median 5.07%Middle half 5.01% – 5.12%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026)
5.14%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 5.14%Middle half 4.85% – 5.57%
How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.71%median
5.64%5.84%
Median 5.71%
How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.67%median
5.65%5.94%
Median 5.67%Middle half 5.66% – 5.67%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.35%median
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.35%
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
13%5.32% or above
5.3%5.59%
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
3%chance
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
43%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
34%median
-40%80%
Median 34%Middle half 19.44% – 51.2%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.22%median
5.09%5.44%
Median 5.22%Middle half 5.18% – 5.26%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
85%No change
- No change85%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase14%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
64%No change
- No change64%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase34%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▲ 2
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.02% – 4.21%
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.9%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.9%Middle half 3.82% – 3.97%
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%
- Before July 202895%▼ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202792%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▲ 1
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.52%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.52%Middle half 4.1% – 5.14%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
80%chance▲ 11
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting31%▲ 3
- March 2027 Meeting15%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
SOFR for October 19, 2026
3.86%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.86%Middle half 3.85% – 3.9%
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
77%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >077%▲ 5
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 013%▼ 1
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >08%▲ 6
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 2
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0<1%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0<1%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.