How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Kalshi Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $33.3K traded · $25.5K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

38%5.7% or above
30Y Yield now 5.315 +0.53%
5.64%5.84%

How the odds have moved

5.7% or above: 55% on Oct 20, 38% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 9 PM ET5.7% or above: 31% → 40%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ 5.3% or above 99% $1.01 3.4K
✓ 5.31% or above 99% $1.01 2.4K
✓ 5.32% or above 97% $1.03 3.2K
✓ 5.33% or above 99% $1.01 4.9K
✓ 5.34% or above 99% $1.01 7.5K
✓ 5.35% or above 93% $1.08 611
✓ 5.36% or above 86% $1.16 669
✓ 5.37% or above 3% $33.33 502
✓ 5.38% or above 99% $1.01 273
✓ 5.39% or above 69% $1.45 833
✓ 5.4% or above 98% $1.02 2.6K
✓ 5.41% or above 58% $1.72 102
✓ 5.42% or above 70% $1.43 1.00
✓ 5.43% or above 66% $1.52 1.00
✓ 5.44% or above 51% $1.96 2.00
✓ 5.45% or above 95% $1.05 1.3K
✓ 5.46% or above 83% $1.20 141
✓ 5.47% or above 53% $1.89 1.00
✓ 5.48% or above 98% $1.02 202
✓ 5.49% or above 93% $1.08 441
✓ 5.5% or above 91% $1.10 1.1K
✓ 5.51% or above 95% $1.05 542
✓ 5.52% or above 93% $1.08 475
✓ 5.53% or above 90% $1.11 668
✓ 5.54% or above 92% $1.09 1.4K
✓ 5.6% or above —
✓ 5.65% or above 84% $1.19 375
5.7% or above 38% ▼ 2 35¢ 41¢ $2.44 2.1K
5.75% or above 18% ▼ 20 19¢ 35¢ $2.86 1.9K
5.8% or above 13% ▼ 6 14¢ 29¢ $3.45 2.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Y US Treasury

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions