10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.98%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.98%Middle half 4.97% – 5%
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How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
The odds
16%Below 4.00%
5Y Yield now 4.819 +0.29% 3.9%4.55%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
Below 4.00%: 10% on Oct 20, 16% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.00% | 16% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $10K |
| Below 4.10% | 16% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $16.1K |
| Below 4.20% | 16% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.31 | $34.7K |
| Below 4.25% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 11¢ | $9.43 | $24.3K |
| Below 4.30% | 16% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.94 | $20.2K |
| Below 4.35% | 16% | ▼ 1 | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $40.8K |
| Below 4.40% | 16% | ▼ 2 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $22.7K |
| Below 4.45% | 16% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $34K | |
| Below 4.50% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $28.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decisionU.S. Treasury yields inched lower Monday as investors look ahead to the central bank's interest rate decision and await a flurry of economic data this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point to 4.98%… -
Health Brief: Making sense of Treasury’s biotech deal proposalPharma sees a potential catch in Washington’s latest effort to curb China’s biotech ambitions Happy Friday, and welcome to Health Brief. Calley Means, a key member of the Make America Healthy Again movement, announced he would be leaving… -
Why investors are moving back into TreasurysU.S. Treasurys are returning to favor as a safe haven play that sidesteps investors' worries over a shaky economy and the future of the data center build-out. -
Ripple Treasury Introduces Always-On Corporate Treasury Platform to Modernize Corporate Cash ManagementNew orchestration capabilities connect treasury workflows, AI, payments, and choice of rails while 24/7 Returns allow businesses to put operating cash to work beyond traditional banking hours with Ripple USD (RLUSD) -
Tipalti launches treasury solutionNumeral announced the launch of a partner program for accounting and advisory firms, offering revenue sharing and firm development support. From charitable gifts to opportunity zone gains, here are fourth-quarter tax moves advisors should… -
US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safetyMarkets have grown worried that Big Tech firms will not make sufficient money to cover their ballooning investments and are running into supply-chain bottlenecks. US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safety US Treasurys gained in… -
Treasury proposes major restrictions to U.S. investment in Chinese biotech sectorBy John Wilkerson and Damian Garde WASHINGTON — The Trump administration late on Thursday proposed a rule that would severely restrict future U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector but still allow American drugmakers to buy the… -
Ripple Equips Its Treasury Tool With New CapabilitiesBlockchain company Ripple has announced new capabilities for its treasury product. The updated Ripple Treasury allows businesses to manage cash, payments and liquidity around the clock, the company said in its announcement Monday (Oct… -
Brazil Treasury Buys Back US$1.3B of Bonds—The buyback. Brazil’s Treasury bought back about R$7.1 billion (US$1.3 billion) of fixed-rate NTN-F bonds on Monday. —The trigger. Long-term borrowing costs jumped after President Lula won re-election on Sunday with 51.79% of valid votes… -
The $1 Trillion Treasury Shock Brewing In JapanFor decades, Japanese investors hunted for income abroad because rates at home were too low. Not anymore. Last week, Japan auctioned a batch of 20-year government bonds to record demand. Investors submitted bids worth 5.84 times the amount… -
Ripple Treasury Goes 24/7, Lets AI Move Corporate CashCorporate treasury is going always-on. 🌐 Today, we're introducing new Ripple Treasury capabilities that bring together AI-powered automation, liquidity management, and digital asset infrastructure to help businesses manage and move money… -
Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit OutlookMetaplanet moves to the U.S. to issue preferreds. Allard Peng breaks down the capital pool, parent support questions, and why it's accretive to common shares. Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit Outlook…
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All rates & bonds ›How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
28%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
4.97%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 4.97%Middle half 3.33% – 7.75%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
88%Below 5.25%
5.2%5.46%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
30%5.70%
5.6%6.1%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
66%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions