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How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
The odds
How the odds have moved
Below 5.43%: 36% on Oct 20, 88% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5.25% | 88% | ▲ 5 | 31¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | $2K |
| Below 5.30% | 88% | ▲ 82 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.6K | |
| Below 5.35% | 88% | ▲ 72 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.7K | |
| Below 5.40% | 88% | ▲ 32 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.9K | |
| Below 5.43% | 88% | ▲ 46 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2K | |
| ✓ Below 5.46% | >99% | ▲ 59 | 91¢ | 100¢ | $3.8K | |
| ✓ Below 5.49% | >99% | ▲ 53 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $4.6K | |
| ✓ Below 5.52% | >99% | ▲ 42 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2.7K | |
| ✓ Below 5.55% | >99% | ▲ 25 | 99¢ | 100¢ | $2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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Zcash co-founder proposes ending grants funding, citing $125 million treasuryZcash co-founder Sean Bowe has proposed ending automatic funding for the privacy network’s community grants program, saying its treasury is now big enough to cover years of spending without any new money coming in. His draft proposal… -
Scott Bessent says Iran's economy is 'collapsing' as Treasury tightens financial viseTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins Brian Kilmeade to discuss President Donald Trump's economic crackdown on Iran, mounting pressure on the Iranian regime, trade tensions with Canada and Mexico and the outlook for the U.S. economy… -
10-year treasury yield is attractive, says Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa ahead of Fed meetingSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what's ahead for the federal reserve, the state of the bond market, and more. 10-year treasury yield is attractive, says Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa… -
U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decisionU.S. Treasury yields inched lower Monday as investors look ahead to the central bank's interest rate decision and await a flurry of economic data this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point to 4.98%… -
Tipalti launches treasury solutionNumeral announced the launch of a partner program for accounting and advisory firms, offering revenue sharing and firm development support. From charitable gifts to opportunity zone gains, here are fourth-quarter tax moves advisors should… -
Assembled Media widens Treasury Wine Estates remitIndependent media agency Assembled Media has expanded its partnership with Treasury Wine Estates to include the broader brand portfolio beyond its work for flagship brand Penfolds. Independent media agency Assembled Media has expanded its… -
Treasury Firm Strive Makes Massive Bitcoin Purchase, Acquiring $511,000,000 Worth of BTCThe Bitcoin treasury firm Strive (ASST) just acquired $511 million worth of BTC. The Dallas-based company bought 6,182 Bitcoin between October 16th and 23rd, stretching its total holdings to 43,000 BTC, per documents filed with the U.S… -
Ripple Equips Its Treasury Tool With New CapabilitiesBlockchain company Ripple has announced new capabilities for its treasury product. The updated Ripple Treasury allows businesses to manage cash, payments and liquidity around the clock, the company said in its announcement Monday (Oct… -
BNC Stock Gains 14% as BNB Treasury Shift Drives Nasdaq RebrandCEA has rebranded as BNB Standard Corporation, marking its financial shift into BNB Treasury operations while maintaining its initial agricultural focus. With 515,544 BNB, the company is now the world's largest corporate BNB Treasury. BNC… -
Brazil Treasury Buys Back US$1.3B of Bonds—The buyback. Brazil’s Treasury bought back about R$7.1 billion (US$1.3 billion) of fixed-rate NTN-F bonds on Monday. —The trigger. Long-term borrowing costs jumped after President Lula won re-election on Sunday with 51.79% of valid votes… -
US Treasury 3 Year Note ETF (NASDAQ:UTRE) Sees Large Growth in Short InterestUS Treasury 3 Year Note ETF (NASDAQ:UTRE – Get Free Report) saw a large increase in short interest during the month of October. As of October 15th, there was short interest totaling 51,790 shares, an increase of 808.8% from the September… -
Tron Inc. Expands TRX Treasury Beyond 720.5 Million as Price Nears $0.33Home > Tron News > Tron Inc. Expands TRX Treasury Beyond 720.5 Million as Price Nears $0.33 The TRX treasury expanded this Monday, October 26, following the purchase of 150,997 units of the digital asset, solidifying a corporate balance…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions