10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.15%median
4.93%5.25%
Median 5.15%Middle half 5.12% – 5.18%
Install
10Y Yield ^TNX prediction markets
Every prediction market about 10Y Yield: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see 10Y Yield
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
44%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
5%Below 1.0%
0%4.8%
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.08%median
4.99%5.11%
Median 5.08%Middle half 5% – 5.09%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
29%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
17%5.32%
5.29%5.65%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
5.07%median
4.89%5.25%
Median 5.07%Middle half 5.01% – 5.12%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026)
5.14%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 5.14%Middle half 4.85% – 5.57%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.35%median
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.35%
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
13%5.32% or above
5.3%5.59%
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
3%chance
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
43%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
34%median
-40%80%
Median 34%Middle half 19.44% – 51.2%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.22%median
5.09%5.44%
Median 5.22%Middle half 5.18% – 5.26%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
85%No change
- No change85%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase14%▲ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
64%No change
- No change64%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase34%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.73% – 4.08%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▲ 2
Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
2.87%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.87%Middle half 2.72% – 3.05%
CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.24%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.24%Middle half 0.15% – 0.34%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
14%Above 4.5%
4%12%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.02% – 4.21%
Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
2.85%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.85%Middle half 2.73% – 2.98%
Core CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.2%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.12% – 0.28%
US recession by end of 2026?
7%chance
Core CPI in December (Dec 2026)
0.2%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.13% – 0.28%
US Core CPI (Nov 2026)
2.82%median
1.8%3%
Median 2.82%
Headline PCE inflation in September (September 2026)
0.44%median
-0.1%0.8%
Median 0.44%Middle half 0.39% – 0.49%
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.9%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.9%Middle half 3.82% – 3.97%
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%
- Before July 202895%▼ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202792%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▲ 1
October Unemployment Rate
4.19%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.12% – 4.25%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
US Unemployment Rate (Jun 2027)
4.1%median
1.8%6.8%
Median 4.1%
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.52%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.52%Middle half 4.1% – 5.14%
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.68% – 3.73%
CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
3.86%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.86%Middle half 3.64% – 4.16%
Jobs numbers in October 2026?
72Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 72KMiddle half 16K – 104K
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.