Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
2.84%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.84%Middle half 2.73% – 3%
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Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
The odds
2.83%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.83%Middle half 2.71% – 2.96%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.85% on Oct 20, 2.83% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.0% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 12.9K | |
| Above 2.1% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.5K | |
| Above 2.2% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 45.1K | |
| Above 2.3% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 15.4K | |
| Above 2.4% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 23.3K | |
| Above 2.5% | 98% | ▲ 3 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 11.7K |
| Above 2.6% | 86% | ▼ 5 | 83¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 16.8K |
| Above 2.7% | 78% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 13.5K |
| Above 2.8% | 56% | ▼ 3 | 55¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 11.4K |
| Above 2.9% | 34% | 33¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 49.1K | |
| Above 3.0% | 20% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 15.6K |
| Above 3.1% | 10% | ▼ 2 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 18.0K |
| Above 3.2% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 7.5K |
| Above 3.3% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 15.0K | |
| Above 3.4% | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 16.5K |
| Above 3.5% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
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Consumer prices rise 1.16 per cent in first nine months of 2026Macau’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.16 per cent in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2025, marking the highest level for the period in six years, official data indicate. According to official… -
Nasdaq 100: Fed, PCE Inflation and Tech Earnings in FocusThis week brings several high-volatility risk events for the Nasdaq. These include the Fed interest rate decision, earnings of major technology companies (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon) and the September Core PCE inflation data. The Federal… - Brazil consumer prices rise 0.32% in mid-OctoberSAO PAULO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's IPCA-15 consumer price index rose 0.32% in the month to mid-October, down from 0.70% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. The index had been expected to…
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‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so farAs the US midterm elections approach, we take a look at data to see a true picture of the US economy under Trump With the midterm elections fast approaching, many Americans have the economy on their minds. US voters are exhausted by years… -
BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices in Sept. rise 2.1% on yearRead full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa… - BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices rise 2.0% or more for 1st time since Dec. 2025Read full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa…
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Producer prices are up 6.3%. Consumer prices only 3.7%. This chart shows who eats the gap | FXStreetشبكة تواصل الإخبارية The Producer Price Index rose 6.3% in the year to September and the Consumer Price Index 3.7%, the widest gap since 2022. Inside the S&P 500, energy and technology companies collect the difference, the rest pay it, and… - Morocco’s consumer prices rise in September, driven by food and fuelMorocco’s consumer price index rose 1% in September 2026 compared with August, driven by a 1.6% increase in food prices and a 0.4% rise in non-food prices, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). Meat and vegetable prices each…
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US Treasury yields hold steady ahead of fed rate decision, PCE inflation data and key US economic reports this weekUS Treasury yields remained mostly steady on Monday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and several important economic reports due this week. Investors are watching these updates to understand the… -
US Inflation Latest News: September CPI Rises 3.7% as Core Inflation Beats Forecasts, S&P 500 Futures Fall and Treasury Yields Jump – Check Fed Rate Decision OutlookUS Inflation Latest News: American consumers are facing renewed pressure from rising prices, while financial markets are reassessing what the latest inflation figures mean for interest rates. September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report… - Crypto Market Outlook: What to Expect Ahead of FOMC and US PCE Inflation DataRipple-BCG Report Highlights $100M Bank Profit Potential BNB Foundation Completes 37th Quarterly BNB Token Burn Patrick Witt Confirms White House Exit, Eyes Private Sector Standard Chartered Launches Crypto Trading in UAE for Clients…
Related markets
All inflation ›October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%
US economic state at the end of 2026?
96%Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)96%▲ 2
- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)4%▼ 2
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)<1%
1 more
- Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)<1%
CPI in November (Nov 2026)
0.18%median
-0.2%0.6%
Median 0.18%Middle half 0.06% – 0.37%
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.4%median
2.51%7.49%
Median 5.4%Middle half 5.13% – 5.76%
CPI-U index in October (October 2026)
337.4median
334.1337.7
Median 337.4Middle half 336.1 – 337.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions