Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 8 · $1.8K today · $46.7K traded · $3.6K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

55%25 bps increase

25 bps increase55%▼ 2
No change34%▲ 12
50+ bps increase6%▲ 1
25 bps decrease4%▲ 3
50+ bps decrease2%

How the odds have moved

25 bps increase: 46% on Oct 20, 55% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 7 PM ET25 bps increase: 53% → 47%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
25 bps increase	55%	▼ 2	53¢	57¢	$1.75	$22.1K
No change	34%	▲ 12	26¢	41¢	$2.44	$14.8K
50+ bps increase	6%	▲ 1	1¢	11¢	$9.52	$3.3K
25 bps decrease	4%	▲ 3	2¢	6¢	$16.67	$3.4K
50+ bps decrease	2%		0¢	3¢	$34.48	$3.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

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Week Ahead: Five G10 Central Banks Meet And Reserve Bank of New Zealand And The Bank of Canada Are Most Likely To HikeSeeking Alpha · 2 days agoThe dollar has become more sensitive to changes in the 10-year yield than that two-year, but the correlations are both much less than earlier in the year. Read more here. - The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the euro and changes…
Currency markets subdued ahead of pivotal central bank weekCNBC · 34 h agoMajor currencies traded in tight ranges on Monday to begin a busy week of central bank decisions and corporate earnings, while a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on the dollar. Oil prices eased, with Brent crude futures…
Westpac Signs Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Basic Transaction Services Access AgreementMarketScreener · 7 days agomarketscreener.com Published on 10/19/2026 at 11:26 pm EDT Westpac Banking shares slide after disappointed earnings February 24, 2025 at 05:00 am EST
New Zealand Dollar poises for gains amid RBNZ rate hike oddsFXStreet · 31 h agoNZD/USD moves little after posting modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 0.5700 during Asian hour on Monday. The pair may regain its ground as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could receive support from expectations that…
New Zealand Dollar gains ground to near 0.5700 as RBNZ rate hike bets riseFXStreet · 36 h agoThe NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5700 during the early Asian session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike…
Next Week in Housing: Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Fed on Oct 28Grihik · 3 days agoA heavy week lands for anyone watching housing or interest rates. Here are the dates and the numbers economists expect. Forecasts are expectations, not results. [UPDATE] Replace this preview with the actual results after each release. 9:00…
Kiwi dollar holds steady ahead of RBNZ, Aussie awaits inflation testBrecorder · 31 h agoThe kiwi dollar is steady ahead of an expected RBNZ rate hike, while the Aussie awaits crucial inflation data that could influence the RBA's next interest rate decision. SYDNEY: The kiwi dollar was little changed on Monday ahead of a…
The Week Ahead – Can Big Tech Earnings Save the Day?pro.thestreet.com · 37 h agoAlphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report alongside an FOMC decision and a packed week of economic data. It’s a big week for US economic data, headlined by the advance estimate of Q3 GDP which will also include the September personal income…
New Zealand Dollar stalls below 0.5700 as Oil prices dent risk appetiteFXStreet · 4 days agoRisk appetite, however, is faltering on Friday, as tensions climb in the Middle East, pushing Oil prices higher. The barrel of Brent Crude hit five-month highs above $110.00 on Friday, pushing global inflation higher, but also increasing…
Weak Tech Earnings Pressure the US Dollar as Central Bank Divergence Shapes Forex MarketsForex Factory · 5 days agoThe US dollar is facing renewed pressure as disappointing earnings from major technology companies raise concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment boom. Meanwhile, expectations of further monetary…
New Zealand Dollar gains ground to near 0.5700 on RBNZ rate hike prospectsFXStreet · 4 days agoThe NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5690 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar…
Take Five: AI trade meets the Fed@959thesportsnut · 4 days agoOct 23 (Reuters) – An eye-catching week is in store as rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan announce policy decisions, while investors will gauge whether results from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 8, 2026 7:00 PM ET

Traded$46.7K

Today$1.8K

This week$4.3K

At stake$3.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is de

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions