Pennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026

Kalshi Economy › Jobs Closes Apr 30, 2027 · $79.4K traded · $10.1K at stake · prices read 12 min ago

The odds

555,592median

540,000575,000

Median 555,592Middle half 552,230 – 558,882

How the odds have moved

Median: 555,592 on Oct 20, 555,592 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 545,000 jobs	97%	96¢	97¢	$1.03	24.5K
Above 550,000 jobs	92%	91¢	92¢	$1.09	26.3K
Above 555,000 jobs	55%	54¢	55¢	$1.82	49.2K
Above 560,000 jobs	17%	16¢	17¢	$5.88	24.4K
Above 565,000 jobs	6%	5¢	6¢	$16.67	14.0K
Above 570,000 jobs	5%	4¢	5¢	$20.00	2.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Pennsylvania

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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76%chance▲ 34

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Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17, 2026

198,333median

120,000230,000

Median 198,333Middle half 192,727 – 203,636

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October Unemployment Rate

4.19%median

3.75%4.65%

Median 4.19%Middle half 4.12% – 4.26%

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Will Port of Baltimore container volume rise YoY? (2026)

67%chance

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBureau of Labor Statistics

Trading closesApr 30, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$79.4K (140,750 contracts)

This week$79.4K

At stake$10.1K

In the news52 headlines today, 1,124 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If BLS reports Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 545,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.