Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?
4.19%median
3.25%5.55%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.09% – 4.31%
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October Unemployment Rate
The odds
4.19%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.12% – 4.25%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.19% on Oct 20, 4.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤3.8% | <1% | 0¢ | $541 | |||
| 3.9% | <1% | 0¢ | $581 | |||
| 4.0% | 5% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | $1.3K | |
| 4.1% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $7.5K |
| 4.2% | 42% | ▲ 9 | 40¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | $6.6K |
| 4.3% | 18% | ▼ 8 | 15¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $3.9K |
| 4.4% | 6% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.43 | $1.9K |
| 4.5% | <1% | 0¢ | $610 | |||
| ≥4.6% | 1% | 1¢ | $90.91 | $615 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?MedianKalshi 4.19%Polymarket 4.19%0 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)MedianKalshi 4.15%Polymarket 4.19%0.04 pts apart
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
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Uruguay Unemployment Rate Dips to 7.1%The Uruguay unemployment rate dipped to 7.1% in September 2026, down from 7.2% in August, the national statistics office INE said on Friday 23 October. INE calls the level similar to both the previous month and September 2025, so the… -
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions