October Unemployment Rate
4.2%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.12% – 4.27%
Install
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?
The odds
4.2%median
3.25%5.55%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.1% – 4.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.2% on Oct 20, 4.2% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 500 | ||
| Exactly 3.4% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Exactly 3.5% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Exactly 3.6% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 19.00 | ||
| Exactly 3.7% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Exactly 3.8% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 133 | ||
| Exactly 3.9% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 800 | ||
| Exactly 4.0% | 4% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.7K | |
| Exactly 4.1% | 20% | 26¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 3.1K | |
| Exactly 4.2% | 26% | ▼ 1 | 33¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 2.7K |
| Exactly 4.3% | 17% | ▼ 2 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 2.5K |
| Exactly 4.4% | 4% | ▲ 3 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.2K |
| Exactly 4.5% | 1% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.7K | ||
| Exactly 4.6% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.5K | ||
| Exactly 4.7% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.3K | ||
| Exactly 4.8% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.7K | ||
| Exactly 4.9% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.4K | ||
| Exactly 5.0% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.5K | ||
| Exactly 5.1% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.3K | ||
| Exactly 5.2% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 3.5K | ||
| Exactly 5.3% | 1% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.0K | ||
| Exactly 5.4% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Exactly 5.5% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?MedianKalshi 4.2%Polymarket 4.2%0.01 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… - When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.I wonder how bad it actually is right now in 2016. The Strait of Hormuz is open, traffic, on average, is about 70% of what it was before the war against Iran started, but industry experts also say about 80% of the oil coming out of the…
-
Most New Jobs Reported Last Year Were Revised AwayWhen first reported, the 2025 monthly jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs for the year, Steve Rattner reports. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less than reported. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members… -
Hiring in September grew much less than expected, jobs report showsHiring grew much less than expected in September as a monthslong surge of inflation weighed on shoppers and rattled bond markets, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp… -
Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrinkJobless rate falls to 5% as employers cut 2,000 jobs in September Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrink - Sacramento apartment rents slip as seasonal softness sets in… -
Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?Guardian journalism is independent. We earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more. An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude In a… -
Sterling up after higher inflation: The British job report was overall mixed but rates are likely to rise next monthThe pound sterling has appreciated against most other major currencies in recent days after higher inflation than expected on 21 October increased further the probability of the Bank of England (BoE) hiking to 4% in November. This article… -
OneSource Virtual and Workday Enter Reseller Agreement for Payroll and Payroll Tax ServicesOneSource Virtual announced a new partnership with Workday that will enable customers to add OneSource Virtual's payroll administration and payroll tax services to their Workday platform through an ... OneSource Virtual announced a new… -
Black unemployment is nearing twice the white rate. Economists say America should pay attentionBlack workers are once again feeling economic instability first as Trump administration job cuts and a stagnant labor market add pressure. Black unemployment under the second administration has been bumpy, to say the least. While the… -
Layoffs Fueled Spike in Unemployment Claims in Three Key Senate Race StatesOct 22, 2026 at 05:38 PM EDT Layoffs drove increases in unemployment claims in Texas, Ohio and Michigan earlier this month just as the three states are embroiled in crucial U.S. Senate races building up to the November 3 midterm elections… - Vermont’s Unemployment Rate Remained at 2.6 Percent in September | Department of LaborVermont’s Unemployment Rate Remained at 2.6 Percent in September Today, the Vermont Department of Labor released data on the Vermont economy for the time period covering September 2026. According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted…
-
The truth about MLB’s payroll disparity problem — and how to potentially fix itThe Dodgers were never the bogeyman. MILWAUKEE — The Dodgers were never the bogeyman. Appreciate how rare and difficult it was to become the first team in a quarter of century to win back-to-back titles. And I can tell you from firsthand…
Related markets
All jobs ›Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?
4.19%median
3.25%5.15%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.11% – 4.25%
Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$282,083median
$175,000$375,000
Median $282,083Middle half $260,776 – $303,977
Maine lobster landings in 2026
74.2median
5095
Median 74.2Middle half 68.2 – 80.6
Russia unemployment rate in September (Russia UE Oct 2026)
2.27%median
1.7%2.6%
Median 2.27%Middle half 2.02% – 2.38%
China unemployment rate in October (China UE Oct 2026)
5.19%median
4.5%5.7%
Median 5.19%Middle half 5.08% – 5.25%
Will North Carolina pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs rise YoY? (December 2026)
31%chance▲ 18
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.