Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?
4.2%median
3.25%5.55%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.1% – 4.32%
Install
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?
The odds
4.19%median
3.25%5.15%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.11% – 4.25%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.33% on Oct 19, 4.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 1% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.0K | ||
| Exactly 3.6% | 3% | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.00 | ||
| Exactly 3.8% | 1% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 100 | ||
| Exactly 3.9% | 2% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 528 | ||
| Exactly 4.0% | 3% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 100 | ||
| Exactly 4.1% | 24% | 68¢ | $1.47 | 2.4K | ||
| Exactly 4.2% | 43% | 3¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 1.6K | |
| Exactly 4.3% | 3% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 740 | |
| Exactly 4.4% | 3% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 720 | |
| Exactly 4.5% | 3% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.4K | ||
| Exactly 4.6% | 3% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.6K | ||
| Exactly 4.7% | 3% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.2K | ||
| Exactly 4.8% | 3% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 720 | ||
| Exactly 4.9% | 2% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.3K | ||
| Exactly 5.0% | 2% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 900 | ||
| Exactly 5.1% | 1% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 200 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?A one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
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Most New Jobs Reported Last Year Were Revised AwayWhen first reported, the 2025 monthly jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs for the year, Steve Rattner reports. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less than reported. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members… -
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… -
Hiring in September grew much less than expected, jobs report showsHiring grew much less than expected in September as a monthslong surge of inflation weighed on shoppers and rattled bond markets, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp… - When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.I wonder how bad it actually is right now in 2016. The Strait of Hormuz is open, traffic, on average, is about 70% of what it was before the war against Iran started, but industry experts also say about 80% of the oil coming out of the…
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Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrinkJobless rate falls to 5% as employers cut 2,000 jobs in September Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrink - Sacramento apartment rents slip as seasonal softness sets in… -
Sterling up after higher inflation: The British job report was overall mixed but rates are likely to rise next monthThe pound sterling has appreciated against most other major currencies in recent days after higher inflation than expected on 21 October increased further the probability of the Bank of England (BoE) hiking to 4% in November. This article… -
Three ways a sync job reports success while reading nothingI keep a weekly job that copies tasks from ClickUp into my own dashboard. It is a small Python wrapper around a CLI that reaches an integration platform, and it publishes a report with the lists and tasks it found. On October 19 it… -
Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?Guardian journalism is independent. We earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more. An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude In a… -
Layoffs Fueled Spike in Unemployment Claims in Three Key Senate Race StatesOct 22, 2026 at 05:38 PM EDT Layoffs drove increases in unemployment claims in Texas, Ohio and Michigan earlier this month just as the three states are embroiled in crucial U.S. Senate races building up to the November 3 midterm elections… -
The truth about MLB’s payroll disparity problem — and how to potentially fix itThe Dodgers were never the bogeyman. MILWAUKEE — The Dodgers were never the bogeyman. Appreciate how rare and difficult it was to become the first team in a quarter of century to win back-to-back titles. And I can tell you from firsthand… -
78% of Indian students expect AI to create more jobs: ReportWhile artificial intelligence (AI) is helping students complete tasks faster, many Indian learners are concerned that it may be affecting how deeply they understand and retain information, according to a new global survey. The HP Futures…
Related markets
All jobs ›Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$285,714median
$175,000$375,000
Median $285,714Middle half $262,963 – $308,182
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
27%U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k27%▲ 18
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
578,248median
250,000650,000
Median 578,248
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
0.58%median
-2%3%
Median 0.58%
Maine lobster landings in 2026
74.2median
5095
Median 74.2Middle half 68.2 – 80.6
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions