Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
Install
Port of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
The odds
8.83median
8.309.30
Median 8.83Middle half 8.70 – 8.94
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.84 on Oct 20, 8.83 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million TEUs | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 3.9K | |
| Above 8.5 million TEUs | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.7K | |
| Above 8.6 million TEUs | 90% | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 36.0K | |
| Above 8.7 million TEUs | 76% | 75¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 37.7K | |
| Above 8.8 million TEUs | 57% | 57¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 44.1K | |
| Above 8.9 million TEUs | 30% | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 38.4K | |
| Above 9.0 million TEUs | 18% | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 35.2K | |
| Above 9.1 million TEUs | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 42.5K | |
| Above 9.2 million TEUs | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 2.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Port of New York and New Jersey
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Shipbuilding: Bayonne Drydock Gets MARAD GrantMembers of Bayonne Drydock’s Executive Leadership Team pose with Congressman Rob Menendez, NJ State Senator Angela McKnight, NJ Assemblyman Jerry Walker, Mayor Sharon Nadrowski, and Bayonne City Council Image courtesy BDD Bayonne Drydock &… -
Bayonne Dry Dock receives $673k grant for equipment and workforce trainingBayonne Dry Dock received a $673,123 grant from the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD), an agency that is part of the U.S. Department of Transportation, for equipment and workforce training. Speaking at a press conference, Bayonne Dry… -
Houston Police Say a Theft Ring Had $3 Million in Luxury Cars Delivered to It. Some Turned Up in New Jersey Labeled as RebarThe usual way to steal a Lamborghini involves getting close to one. Houston police say the luxury car theft ring they broke up this month had them brought over on a truck instead. When some of the cars surfaced again, at the Port of New… -
Circulate NJ: Independent Contractor Rule Already Having an Impact on Trucking, LogisticsSpeaking to NJ101.5’s Eric Scott on "Jersey Thing" last week, Circulate NJ CEO David Greek said New Jersey’s recently implemented independent contractor rule may already be having a negative impact on New Jersey’s freelance trucking and… -
Houston Police Bust Alleged $3 Million Luxury Car Theft Ring Involving Parents and Teen SonSome stolen luxury vehicles recovered at the Port of New York and New Jersey had been packed into shipping containers labeled ‘rebar’ for overseas shipment. Police later recovered some of the cars at the port, and five people now face… -
Sitex Group buys logistics site leased by UPS in South Brunswick100 Middlesex Center Boulevard. - Sitex Group Sitex Group, a privately held investor and developer of industrial real estate, has acquired a 343,000-square-foot warehouse facility at 100 Middlesex Center Boulevard in South Brunswick. The… -
Katy parents and teen son among five charged in $3 million Houston luxury car theft schemeHOUSTON – Five people have been arrested and charged with engaging in organized crime in connection with a scheme that allegedly stole high-end vehicles being shipped across the country, Houston police said. Three of the suspects are… -
Shipping Association of New York & New Jersey names Atkins as EVP and COOJohn Atkins. - Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey (SANYNJ) Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey (SANYNJ) has appointed John Atkins as executive vice president and chief operating officer to succeed Susan Winfree… - Two New Berths and Mustin Yard Planned in $837 Million South Philly Port ExpansionTwo new ship berths and a 152-acre former Navy site on the South Philadelphia waterfront are part of an $837 million expansion of the Port of Philadelphia, WHYY reported. State officials say the work will add 6,000 jobs and about $45…
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$837 million in public and private funds will be invested in Port of Philadelphia, Gov. Shapiro saysGov. Josh Shapiro said the expansion will nearly double the number of jobs at the port from 8,000 to 14,000. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Tuesday announced the state will invest $371 million in the Port of Philadelphia, a commitment… -
New Barge Anchorages Banned (Again)Coast Guard backtracks on recent directive After issuing a bulletin that appeared to invalidate a 2021 law that prohibited the establishment of new anchorages in the Hudson River north of New York City, the Coast Guard has reversed its… -
Nine Months Later, Ryan Celebrates Law“We recognize that a lot feels outside of our control right now,” said Ryan, who is campaigning for a third term. “But this is an example where we refused to accept that; we all came together, and we had a really important victory.”…
Related markets
All jobs ›US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
563,415median
250,000650,000
Median 563,415
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
15%U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k11%▲ 8
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k5%▲ 2
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k5%▲ 2
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%▲ 2
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
11%5.0%
4.5%13%
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
50%Above 2.0%
-2%3%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions