10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.98%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.98%Middle half 4.96% – 5%
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How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?
The odds
37%4.86%
4.83%5.35%
How the odds have moved
4.86%: 38% on Oct 20, 37% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 1 PM ET4.86%: 31% → 37%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 20, 9 PM ET4.86%: 38% → 54%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.86% | 37% | ▲ 19 | 3¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | $1.9K |
| 4.89% | 16% | ▼ 14 | 6¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $2K |
| 4.92% | 15% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $3.2K |
| 4.95% | 9% | ▼ 5 | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $3.6K |
| 5.00% | 5% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $2.5K |
| 5.05% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $1.8K |
| 5.10% | 3% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $18.87 | $1.4K | |
| 5.15% | 3% | ▼ 4 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $1.5K |
| 5.25% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decisionU.S. Treasury yields inched lower Monday as investors look ahead to the central bank's interest rate decision and await a flurry of economic data this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point to 4.98%… -
Ripple Treasury Introduces Always-On Corporate Treasury Platform to Modernize Corporate Cash ManagementNew orchestration capabilities connect treasury workflows, AI, payments, and choice of rails while 24/7 Returns allow businesses to put operating cash to work beyond traditional banking hours with Ripple USD (RLUSD) -
The $1 Trillion Treasury Shock Brewing In JapanFor decades, Japanese investors hunted for income abroad because rates at home were too low. Not anymore. Last week, Japan auctioned a batch of 20-year government bonds to record demand. Investors submitted bids worth 5.84 times the amount… -
Ripple Treasury Goes 24/7, Lets AI Move Corporate CashCorporate treasury is going always-on. 🌐 Today, we're introducing new Ripple Treasury capabilities that bring together AI-powered automation, liquidity management, and digital asset infrastructure to help businesses manage and move money… -
Evernorth secures $80M equity facility to expand XRP treasuryThe Nasdaq listed XRP treasury company plans to use the financing for additional XRP acquisitions, ecosystem development and corporate operations. Evernorth Holdings (NASDAQ: XRPN) has secured a committed equity facility potentially worth… -
Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit OutlookMetaplanet moves to the U.S. to issue preferreds. Allard Peng breaks down the capital pool, parent support questions, and why it's accretive to common shares. Bitcoin Treasury Analyst: MSTR, ASST & Metaplanet Digital Credit Outlook… -
Strive Buys $511M In Bitcoin Boosting Treasury Holdings To 43,000 BTCHome > Companies > Strive Buys $511M In Bitcoin Boosting Treasury Holdings To 43,000 BTC Strive purchased 6,182 BTC for approximately $511 million between October 17 and 23, bringing its total holdings to 43,000 BTC, according to a filing… -
Strive buys 6,182 more Bitcoin, lifting its treasury to 43,000 BTCThe Nasdaq-listed firm keeps stacking coins after its Semler Scientific merger, funded by warrants and preferred stock Strive just added another 6,182 Bitcoin to its balance sheet. That brings the company’s total holdings to 43,000 BTC… -
Bitget, Reality, And Aurelion Partner To Launch Tokenized Gold Treasury StocksHome > Companies > Bitget, Reality, And Aurelion Partner To Launch Tokenized Gold Treasury Stocks Bitget, Reality, and Aurelion announced a partnership to launch rAURE, a token representing shares in a Nasdaq-listed company that holds… -
Tipalti Introduces Fully Integrated Treasury Solution to Modernize Cash ManagementModern Treasury Management, Built for the Mid-Market Treasury gives finance teams a clearer picture of their financial position and the tools to make more informed decisions through: Real-Time Cash Visibility: Consolidates cash balances… -
Bitcoin and Gold Trail Short-Term Treasury Bills in 2026 Asset RankingsHome > Bitcoin News > Bitcoin and Gold Trail Short-Term Treasury Bills in 2026 Asset Rankings — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 25, 2026 Bitget, Reality, And Aurelion Partner To Launch Tokenized Gold Treasury Stocks TL;DR Bitget… -
Tokenized real-world asset market hits $46.3B as Treasuries lose their majorityToken Terminal data shows US T-bills now make up less than a third of the on-chain RWA market as yield strategies and credit funds gain ground The tokenized real-world asset market is now worth $46.3 billion, according to data from Token…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
28%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.24%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.24%Middle half 3.23% – 7.76%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
25%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
88%Below 5.25%
5.2%5.46%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
30%5.70%
5.6%6.1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions