How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
Install
10-Year Treasury Yield (Oct 23, 2026)
The odds
14%Above 5.1
10Y Yield now 4.988 +0.71% 5.05%5.45%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
Above 5.1: 14% on Oct 24, 14% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.1 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.15 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.2 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.25 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.3 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.35 | 14% | $7.07 | ||||
| Above 5.4 | 14% | $7.07 | 14.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury Yield
Search ›-
10-year Treasury yield drops back to 5% this week as investors seek cover from AI worriesInvestors ran for cover this week as artificial intelligence fears hit stocks, driving the 10-year Treasury below 5%. The benchmark yield stayed below 5% on Friday, after falling beneath that level Thursday for the first time in a month as… -
Dow Drops 652 Points as Oil, Treasury Yields Rise: Stock Market TodayTensions between the U.S. and Iran rattled markets and lifted oil prices ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Stocks closed lower Friday as geopolitical uncertainty ramped up and Treasury yields and oil prices climbed. Market participants… -
Update: US Equity Indexes Fall, Treasury Yields Jump as Iran Tensions Send Crude Oil Sharply Higher(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph. Oops, something went wrong Update: US Equity Indexes Fall, Treasury Yields Jump as Iran Tensions Send Crude Oil Sharply Higher (Updates… -
What would a Republican sweep mean for Gold and Treasury yields?Why does this matter to financial markets? Because Congress has a major role in shaping taxes, spending, healthcare policy, government borrowing, and the legislative agenda. A change in congressional control could make it harder for the… -
Treasury yields, tech stocks, and consumer sentiment all took a slide this weekAs war in the Middle East continues, what’s the economic view like for the Fed, consumers, and businesses? As war in the Middle East continues, oil prices are soaring, and U.S. treasury yields are going the opposite way. As next week's… -
Treasury yields fall sharply as traders seek safety from stock market sell-offTreasury yields fell sharply on Thursday, with investors turning to safe havens amid a steep sell-off in equities driven by concerns around the artificial intelligence trade and surging oil prices. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield… -
U.S. treasury yields edge up, bond market focus to stay on FranceU.S. Treasury yields edged higher in Asian trade on Friday, having slid sharply on Thursday as investors sought safe havens from the turmoil in French government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield, which fell below 5% for the first time in… -
Treasury Yields Snapshot: October 23, 2026The yield on the 10-year note finished October 23, 2026, at 5.00% while the 2-year note ended at 4.69%. Read more here. The yield on the 10-year note finished October 23, 2026, at 5.00% while the 2-year note ended at 4.69%. The chart below… -
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Under 5% as French Turmoil Fuels Flight for Safety -- 3rd UpdatePublished on 10/22/2026 at 04:27 pm EDT By Paulo Trevisani and Emese Bartha The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time in a month as a global bond selloff gave way to a flight for safety. Concerns over France's gaping… -
-
Mortgage rates decline for first time in about two months as Treasury yields fall(XLRE:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha Mortgage rates declined for the first time in about two months as the long-term Treasury yields fell this week. The United States 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y) declined to ~5.00% from 5.07% a week ago. United… -
[Breaking] US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 5% AgainIn the US Treasury market on October 22, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5%, reaching its lowest level in about a month. After breaking through 5% in late September and briefly rising to nearly 5.4% in early October, it…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
26%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
24%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
6%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 6%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
69%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
88%Below 5.25%
5.2%5.46%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.