10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.1%median
4.93%5.25%
Median 5.1%Middle half 5.07% – 5.12%
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How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
The odds
46%5.07% or above
5Y Yield now 4.906 −0.47% 5.05%5.36%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
5.07% or above: 46% on Oct 20, 46% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.07% or above | 46% | 44¢ | $2.27 | 2.6K | ||
| 5.08% or above | 46% | 46¢ | $2.17 | 4.2K | ||
| 5.09% or above | 46% | 44¢ | $2.27 | 1.7K | ||
| 5.1% or above | 46% | 42¢ | $2.38 | 2.1K | ||
| 5.11% or above | 46% | 40¢ | $2.50 | 3.7K | ||
| 5.12% or above | 46% | 32¢ | $3.13 | 2.6K | ||
| 5.13% or above | 46% | 32¢ | $3.13 | 513 | ||
| 5.14% or above | 31% | 30¢ | $3.33 | 559 | ||
| 5.15% or above | 31% | 27¢ | $3.70 | 1.9K | ||
| 5.16% or above | 31% | 28¢ | $3.57 | 483 | ||
| 5.17% or above | 31% | 26¢ | $3.85 | 137 | ||
| 5.18% or above | 31% | 24¢ | $4.17 | 300 | ||
| 5.19% or above | 31% | 24¢ | $4.17 | 10.00 | ||
| 5.2% or above | 31% | 21¢ | $4.76 | 600 | ||
| 5.21% or above | 31% | 18¢ | $5.56 | 578 | ||
| 5.22% or above | 31% | 16¢ | $6.25 | 450 | ||
| 5.23% or above | 31% | 15¢ | $6.67 | 301 | ||
| 5.24% or above | 31% | 15¢ | $6.67 | 300 | ||
| 5.25% or above | 7% | 17¢ | $5.88 | 382 | ||
| 5.26% or above | 7% | 15¢ | $6.67 | 368 | ||
| 5.27% or above | 7% | 16¢ | $6.25 | 122 | ||
| 5.3% or above | 7% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | $10.00 | 352 | |
| 5.33% or above | 7% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | $10.00 | 158 | |
| 5.34% or above | 7% | ▲ 22 | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.0K | |
| 5.35% or above | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 951 | ||
| 5.36% or above | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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U.S. Treasury yields move lower as investors await housing, employment dataU.S. Treasury yields inched lower on Tuesday as investors awaited further economic data and continued to weigh the inflationary backdrop ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield… -
Why 10-year Treasury yields are rising above 5%The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury recently climbed to 5.36% at an intraday high, its highest level since 2002. Expectations for higher interest rates, federal borrowing and demand for financing AI investments are putting the bond… -
Treasury identifies $270 million in suspicious activity tied to possible federal student aid fraudThe Trump administration’s new higher education rule ties federal student loan eligibility to graduates’ earnings, pressuring college programs whose students fail to meet federal earnings benchmarks. The Treasury Department has identified… -
Treasury yields move lower as investors assess U.S. inflation backdropTreasury yields moved lower on Monday as investors continue to weigh the domestic inflation and interest rate backdrop against broader geopolitical developments. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto… -
Treasury Yields Edge Lower Before Housing DataArabic version: تراجع طفيف في عوائد الخزانة قبل بيانات الإسكان According to Cnbc, U.S. Treasury yields inched lower on Tuesday as investors awaited further economic data and weighed the inflation backdrop before the Federal Reserve’s… -
Archax, Chainlink Unlock Tokenised Treasuries as CollateralArchax, the UK/EU/US regulated digital asset platform, has adopted Chainlink, the industry-standard oracle platform, to unlock further utility for $GOVY, its 24/7, auto-rolling U.S. tokenised Treasury product designed to align with… -
Archax Integrates Chainlink Data Streams for Tokenized TreasuriesHome » Archax Integrates Chainlink Data Streams for Tokenized Treasuries UK-based digital asset platform Archax has integrated Chainlink Data Streams to provide pricing data for $GOVY, its tokenized perpetual U.S. Treasury product. The… -
Fidelity To Launch Treasury-Backed Stablecoin FIDDThe Fidelity Digital Dollar, ticker FIDD, will launch on the Ethereum network through Fidelity Digital Assets, the firm's federally chartered national bank subsidiary. Fidelity Investments will release its first stablecoin in early… -
Stablecoin Payments Go Treasury-Grade: Circle PrimerCircle’s October 19, 2026 treasury primer reframes stablecoin payments as a treasury rail decision, not a crypto experiment. Stablecoins for Treasurers: A Practical Primer argues regulated, fiat-backed stablecoins like USDC belong… -
Treasury proposes one administrator for R88bn unclaimed assetsThe paper itself, which we read in full, sets out the following design: Treasury stresses that ownership stays with the original owner or beneficiary until a prescribed claims period expires. The paper notes that the Pension Funds Act… -
Crypto Treasury Management: Fed Flags Tokenized Deposit RiskA crypto treasury manages cash, stablecoins, and digital assets when a material part of the balance sheet is in crypto. The operational difference is continuous reconciliation between real-time on-chain settlement and lagged fiat… -
Strive Adds 1,223 Bitcoin, Lifting Treasury to 36,818 BTCStrive's 8-K shows 36,818 bitcoin as of Oct. 16, up 4,045 in a week, as its $630 million SATS preferred offering is set to settle Tuesday. Strive held 36,818 bitcoin as of October 16, up 4,045 coins from the 32,773 it reported a week…
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All rates & bonds ›30-year mortgage rate this week (Oct 22, 2026)
7.31%median
7.22%7.49%
Median 7.31%Middle half 7.3% – 7.33%
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
7.45%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 7.45%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
30%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
15%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
45%No significant difference
- No significant difference45%▲ 6
- Significant decrease32%▼ 11
- Significant increase21%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.