Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
The odds
99%No change
- No change99%▼ 1
- Hike 25 bps1%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
No change: 95% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 99% | ▼ 1 | 98¢ | 100¢ | $56.8K | |
| Hike 25 bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 0¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $56.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Hike
Search ›-
Four ways Labour could raise money in the Budget without hiking income taxWe're likely to hear a lot about the chancellor's "headroom" in this Budget. That is the cash buffer the government has to help meet its own fiscal rules and reduce borrowing. Economists think the buffer might have halved in the last six… -
Australian Dollar declines despite RBA rate hike warningsAUD/USD depreciates after posting modest gains in the previous trading day, trading around 0.7030 during Asian hours on Monday. However, the downside of the currency pair could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may receive… -
Gold declines below $4,000 as higher oil prices reinforce Fed rate-hike expectationsGold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $3,995 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal remains under some selling pressure near its lowest since July as elevated energy prices reinforced inflation concerns before the… -
Tesla Announces Cheapest Cybertruck Yet, Reverses Cyberbeast Price HikeThe new all-wheel-drive version costs $59,990, while the Cyberbeast has been reduced to its previous early 2025 price. Tesla’s Cybertruck is now cheaper than ever, with a new all-wheel-drive (AWD) model priced at $59,990, while its top-end… -
Hiker rescued from Sharp Top Mountain in BedfordA hiker was rescued from Sharp Top Mountain Saturday, October 24, according to Bedford Fire Department. Firefighters say they responded at 7:12 p.m. for the report of a hiker who had fallen and was ... BEDFORD, Va. (WDBJ) - A hiker was… -
Peter Morici: Social Security needs growth, not another tax hikeCongress is finally focusing on the looming Social Security crisis. Without further cuts in benefits or higher payroll taxes, the Social Security Administration projects that the trust fund for old-age pensions will be depleted by 2033. As… - Businesspeople say any hike in policy rate to hit businessesBusinessmen attached with diverse sectors while commenting on the current state of the economic conditions ahead of the SBP’s key monetary policy meeting, being scheduled on Monday, stated that the business community fully acknowledges the…
- Hikers Rescue Collapsed Woman in WA's EnchantmentsThe hikers had started their day at the western trailhead at 9 a.m., planning to finish the route by 6 p.m., and were 11 miles in when they lost the main trail, per the same account. That detour put them in position to spot the woman in…
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DA chief backs pork tariff hike bid, says he stands 'on side of Filipino hog raisers'Department of Agriculture (DA) Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. expressed his support on Sunday for Filipino hog raisers’ calls for higher pork import tariffs, noting the agency’s efforts to ease their mounting losses due to cheaper… -
Hikers urged to prioritise safety and prepare for the unexpectedMalaysian Forestry Mountain Guides Association president Mohamad Azuan Abdullah said beginners tend to underestimate the physical and navigational demands when they enter permanent forest reserves. ALSO READ : It takes a village to save a… -
Keralam government hikes compensations for human-wildlife conflict victims by 25%Maximum compensation for deaths caused by wildlife attacks increased to ₹17.5 lakh; compensation rates for victims who suffer permanent disabilities also increased Keralam government hikes compensations for human-wildlife conflict victims… -
Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hikeBritain’s high street banks are set to unveil stronger profits as they face the prospect of being targeted for a tax hike in the Budget. Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC, NatWest Group and Santander will report their third-quarter financial…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%▼ 2
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
75%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)75%▲ 4
- 1 (25 bps)22%
- 3 (75 bps)2%▼ 3
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.11%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.11%Middle half 4.03% – 4.2%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions