Fed Decision in October?
92%No change
- No change92%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase7%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
The odds
4.34%high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 4.34%.
- Reaches 4.25%75%
- Reaches 4.5%9%
- Reaches 4.75%7%
- Reaches 5%3%
- Reaches 5.25%2%
- Reaches 5.5%2%
- Falls to 3.25%3%
- Falls to 3%2%
- Falls to 2.75%2%
- Falls to 2.5%2%
- Falls to 2.25%2%
- Falls to 2%2%
- Falls to 1.75%2%
- Falls to 1.5%2%
Already reached: ↓ 3.5%
How the odds have moved
Falls to 3.25%: 2% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.25% | 75% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | $149K |
| ↑ 4.5% | 9% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $50.7K |
| ↑ 4.75% | 7% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $8.85 | $81.3K |
| ↑ 5.0% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $20.6K |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $143K | |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $57.3K | |
| ↓ 0% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $21.4K | |
| ↓ 0.25% | 2% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $133K |
| ↓ 0.5% | 2% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $108K | |
| ↓ 0.75% | 2% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $741 |
| ↓ 1.0% | 2% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $2.4K |
| ↓ 1.25% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | $5.2K | |
| ↓ 1.5% | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $28.4K | |
| ↓ 1.75% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $13.3K | |
| ↓ 2.0% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $23.1K | |
| ↓ 2.25% | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $42.5K | |
| ↓ 2.5% | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $227K | |
| ↓ 2.75% | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $374K | |
| ↓ 3.0% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $324K | |
| ↓ 3.25% | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $82.2K |
| ✓ ↓ 3.5% | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Jeff Sica discusses tech AI spending and Federal Reserve rate expectationsCircle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeff Sica discusses high-stakes AI spending from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during a busy earnings week on 'Varney & Co.' Sica warns that tech companies must deliver on artificial… -
Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikesThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against… -
Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumersThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a… -
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision LoomsHome > Bitcoin News > Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision Looms Bitcoin fell to $79,250 last week, recording a 9.3% correction, its steepest pullback since the lows reached in July, according… -
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto MarketsHome > Markets > Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto Markets The crypto market faces a week packed with major economic announcements, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)… -
Why the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates againMany consumers face higher borrowing costs after the Fed's first interest rate hike in more than three years took place on Sept. 16, 2026. Experts warn that more rate hikes could be ahead too, given the spike in inflation. Many consumers… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▼ 2
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
- Other3%▲ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions