10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.98%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.98%Middle half 4.97% – 5%
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Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
The odds
12%Above .7%
10Y Yield now 4.982 −0.12% 0.6%1.1%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
Above .7%: 43% on Oct 19, 12% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 22, 5 PM ETAbove .7%: 87% → 12%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above .7% | 12% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.4K |
| Above .8% | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.3K | |
| Above .9% | 6% | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 1.7K | |
| Above 1.00% | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Y- Y, Treasury
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- SLB Q3 2026 earnings preview: Quarterly earnings expected to slip Y/YSLB reports Q3 earnings October 23 before the open. Get EPS and revenue estimates, revision trends, and key growth risks before you invest. SLB (SLB) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Friday, October 23rd, before market open…
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South African retail sales up 3.3% y/y in AugustSouth African retail sales rose 3.3% year on year in August after rising by 3.4% in July, Statistics South Africa figures showed on Wednesday. Year/year % changes August July ... DOW JONES SOUTH AFRICA(ZAR) South African retail sales up… -
Yongxing Special Materials Technology Q3 Net Profit Up 220.7% Y/YTradingView Yongxing Special Materials Technology Q3 Net Profit Up 220.7% Y/Y -
BV Financial's Q2 Earnings Rise Y/Y on Lower Funding CostsShares of BV Financial, Inc. BVFL have declined 0.1% since the company reported its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. This compares to the S&P 500 index’s 0.5% growth over the same time frame. Over the past month, the stock has… - TGTX Q2 Earnings Lag, Sales Rise Y/Y, 2026 View Raised, Stock DownTG Therapeutics TGTX reported earnings of 5 cents per share for the second quarter of 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents. The company had reported earnings of 17 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Total revenues…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions