30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.76%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.76%Middle half 3.35% – 6.71%
Install
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
The odds
29.17%median
10Y Yield now 4.988 +0.71% -40%80%
Median 29.17%Middle half 13.93% – 46.4%Above today's price 86%
How the odds have moved
Median: 35.79% on Oct 20, 29.17% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -30bps | 97% | ▼ 1 | 94¢ | $1.03 | 326 | |
| Above -20bps | 97% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | $1.04 | 266 | |
| Above -10bps | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | 76.00 | ||
| Above 0bps | 91% | ▼ 1 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 224 |
| Above 10bps | 81% | ▼ 2 | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 227 |
| Above 20bps | 67% | ▼ 3 | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 475 |
| Above 30bps | 49% | ▼ 5 | 44¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 1.7K |
| Above 40bps | 33% | ▼ 3 | 29¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 2.2K |
| Above 50bps | 21% | ▼ 2 | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 744 |
| Above 60bps | 11% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 344 |
| Above 70bps | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Y- Y
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Related markets
All rates & bonds ›How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
24%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.97%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.97%Middle half 4.93% – 5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
23%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
87%Below 5.25%
5.2%5.46%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions