October Inflation US - Monthly
0.28%median
0.05%0.95%
Median 0.28%Middle half 0.2% – 0.35%
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CPI in October (Oct 2026)
The odds
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.16% – 0.29%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.23% on Oct 20, 0.23% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 35.1K | |
| Above 0.0% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 80.1K | |
| Above 0.1% | 90% | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 201.3K | |
| Above 0.2% | 64% | ▲ 2 | 62¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 254.4K |
| Above 0.3% | 23% | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 91.5K | |
| Above 0.4% | 10% | ▲ 3 | 6¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 77.2K |
| Above 0.5% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 31.4K | |
| Above 0.6% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.3K | |
| Above 0.7% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 7.8K | ||
| Above 0.8% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 18.3K | ||
| Above 0.9% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.0K | ||
| Above 1.0% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 17.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- CPI in October (Oct 2026)MedianKalshi 0.23%Polymarket 0.28%0.05 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
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Consumer prices rise 1.16 per cent in first nine months of 2026Macau’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.16 per cent in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2025, marking the highest level for the period in six years, official data indicate. According to official… - Brazil consumer prices rise 0.32% in mid-OctoberSAO PAULO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's IPCA-15 consumer price index rose 0.32% in the month to mid-October, down from 0.70% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. The index had been expected to…
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BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices in Sept. rise 2.1% on yearRead full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa… - BREAKING NEWS: Japan's core consumer prices rise 2.0% or more for 1st time since Dec. 2025Read full story here Japan agency cancels mistakenly issued M9.9 quake alert, transit disrupted Weather agency confirms year's 30th typhoon, 1st since 2013 Vulnerabilities found in widely used PHP programming language Newcomer Harasawa…
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Producer prices are up 6.3%. Consumer prices only 3.7%. This chart shows who eats the gap | FXStreetشبكة تواصل الإخبارية The Producer Price Index rose 6.3% in the year to September and the Consumer Price Index 3.7%, the widest gap since 2022. Inside the S&P 500, energy and technology companies collect the difference, the rest pay it, and… - Morocco’s consumer prices rise in September, driven by food and fuelMorocco’s consumer price index rose 1% in September 2026 compared with August, driven by a 1.6% increase in food prices and a 0.4% rise in non-food prices, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). Meat and vegetable prices each…
- Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.9% to 2.1% in SeptemberUSD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose…
- Morocco Consumer Prices Rise 1.0% in September 2026Morocco's consumer price index increased 1.0% in September 2026 compared with the previous month, according to the High Commission for Planning. The agency reported that the monthly gain reflected a 1.6% rise in the food index and a 0.4%…
- Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index registered at 1.7%, below expectations (1.8%) in SeptemberComposed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market. Find independent, trusted…
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US Inflation Latest News: September CPI Rises 3.7% as Core Inflation Beats Forecasts, S&P 500 Futures Fall and Treasury Yields Jump – Check Fed Rate Decision OutlookUS Inflation Latest News: American consumers are facing renewed pressure from rising prices, while financial markets are reassessing what the latest inflation figures mean for interest rates. September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report… -
Food inflation steady as fuel costs drive rise in consumer pricesFood price inflation has remained mild for several months as supermarkets compete for market share Inflation rose above market estimates to reach 3.5% in September, as fuel and transport costs surged two points to 6.6%. However, food price…
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US economic state at the end of 2026?
94%Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)94%▲ 4
- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)6%▼ 4
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)1%
1 more
- Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions