US SPR level for the week ending October 23, 2026
282.1median
276289
Median 282.1Middle half 281.5 – 282.6
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US SPR level for the week ending October 16, 2026
Settled Between 282.00 and 283.00A day before, traders had a median of 282.4
The last odds before it closed
282.4median
- ✓ Above 277M99%
- ✓ Above 278M99%
- ✓ Above 279M98%
- ✓ Above 280M98%
- ✓ Above 281M98%▲ 2
- ✓ Above 282M80%
- Above 283M3%
- Above 284M2%
- Above 285M2%
- Above 286M2%
- Above 287M1%▼ 1
- Above 288M1%
How the odds have moved
Median: 281.8 on Oct 19, 282.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 277M | 99% | 200 | ||||
| ✓ Above 278M | 99% | |||||
| ✓ Above 279M | 98% | |||||
| ✓ Above 280M | 98% | |||||
| ✓ Above 281M | 98% | 413 | ||||
| ✓ Above 282M | 80% | 4.0K | ||||
| ✗ Above 283M | 3% | |||||
| ✗ Above 284M | 2% | 200 | ||||
| ✗ Above 285M | 2% | 20.00 | ||||
| ✗ Above 286M | 2% | |||||
| ✗ Above 287M | 1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 288M | 1% | 935 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in October?
93%No change
- No change93%
- 25 bps increase6%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
74%chance▼ 2
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
74%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike74%▲ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause22%▼ 2
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▲ 1
2 more
- Other1%
- Hike–Hike–Pause<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.