Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
US SPR level for the week ending October 23, 2026
The odds
282.1median
276289
Median 282.1Middle half 281.5 – 282.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 282.2 on Oct 21, 282.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 277M | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 278M | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| Above 279M | 96% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | $1.04 | ||
| Above 280M | 95% | ▲ 1 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 12.00 |
| Above 281M | 93% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 59.00 |
| Above 282M | 57% | 53¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 24.00 | |
| Above 283M | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 400 | ||
| Above 284M | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Above 285M | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Above 286M | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Above 287M | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Above 288M | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Wisconsin corn yield in 2026
182.8median
160200
Median 182.8Middle half 178.2 – 187.8
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
4.99%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 4.99%Middle half 2.9% – 7.16%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
17%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions