Trump's approval rating on Oct 30, 2026?
38.6median
37.539.6
Median 38.6Middle half 38.3 – 38.9
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Trump's approval rating on Oct 23, 2026?
Settled 38.80A day before, traders had a median of 38.6
The last odds before it closed
—
- ✓ 38.7 to 38.999%▲ 82
- 39.0 to 39.23%▼ 2
- Below 37.81%▼ 2
- 37.8 to 38.01%▼ 1
- 38.1 to 38.31%▼ 17
- 38.4 to 38.61%▼ 43
- 39.3 to 39.51%▼ 3
- Above 39.51%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
38.7 to 38.9: 24% on Oct 20, 34% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET38.7 to 38.9: 26% → 17%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ Below 37.8 | 1% | 31.2K | ||||
| ✗ 37.8 to 38.0 | 1% | 22.2K | ||||
| ✗ 38.1 to 38.3 | 1% | 39.8K | ||||
| ✗ 38.4 to 38.6 | 1% | 25.5K | ||||
| ✓ 38.7 to 38.9 | 99% | 22.7K | ||||
| ✗ 39.0 to 39.2 | 3% | 15.4K | ||||
| ✗ 39.3 to 39.5 | 1% | 10.0K | ||||
| ✗ Above 39.5 | 1% | 17.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
Trump’s Twelve Apostles Are Already RepentingOct 26, 2026 at 03:02 PM EDT The apostles took rather longer to repent. Within three days of 12 Catholic bishops praying over President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, the apologies had begun. Milwaukee Archbishop Jeffrey Grob regretted… -
Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House foreverFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze recent insults from former President Barack Obama against President Donald Trump. Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House forever Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’… -
Trump encourages Republicans to support down-ballot racesPresident Trump visited deep-red Mississippi on Monday, rallying for incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is facing off against Democrat Scott Colom. CBS News correspondent Skyler Henry has more from Corinth. Trump visits rural… -
Trump campaigns in Mississippi as Election Day nearsFox News correspondent Mark Meredith reports on President Donald Trump's campaign stop in Mississippi ahead of the 2026 midterm elections on 'Special Report.' ... Trump campaigns in Mississippi as Election Day nears Fox News correspondent… -
Trump argues Ilhan Omar isn't truthful about who she isFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on President Donald Trump's calls for Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., to resign from Congress and whether she could be removed from office on 'Hannity.' Trump argues Ilhan Omar… -
Trump stumps for Republicans in deep-red MississippiAs gas prices remain essentially the same as during the Biden administration, President Trump is stumping for Republican candidates in deep-red states like Mississippi. CBS News' Weijia Jiang reports on the White House's midterm strategy… -
Trump praises Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi rally speechWith the midterm elections approaching, a Mississippi rally emphasizes the high stakes of the Senate race. President Trump championed Cindy Hyde-Smith for the United States Senate while accusing ... Trump praises Cindy Hyde-Smith in… -
Lula victory in Brazil means more Trump tensionsBrazil’s decision to reelect leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over Flávio Bolsonaro marks a setback in President Donald Trump’s bid to elevate like-minded leaders across the globe. It also raises questions about the relationship… -
Trump says Brazil election looked ‘rigged’ after Bolsonaro losesThe president did not cite any evidence of fraud, but added that he did like leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Donald Trump meets with Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit… -
Trump Offers $1M for Election Fraud Convictions Week Before MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT President Donald Trump has offered $1 million to people who report voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction, raising the financial stakes of his election-integrity push just over a week before the… -
Trump admin crisscrosssing red states to turnout GOP votersCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump admin crisscrosssing…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions