María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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Who will be arrested before 2027?
The odds
24%Lee Jun-seok
- Lee Jun-seok24%▲ 11
- John Brennan22%
- Mahmoud Khalil18%▲ 2
- Tom Homan7%▼ 4
- Anthony Fauci7%
- James Comey6%▲ 2
- Candace Owens6%
- Susan Rice6%▼ 1
- Pam Bondi5%
- James Clapper5%▼ 2
- Lisa Cook5%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero5%
12 more
- Letitia James4%
- Benjamin Netanyahu4%
- Brandon Johnson4%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff4%
- Gavin Newsom3%
- Kash Patel2%
- Loretta Lynch2%
- Barack Obama2%
- Bill Clinton2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- John Kerry1%
- Joe Biden1%
How the odds have moved
Lee Jun-seok: 43% on Oct 21, 24% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 AM ETLee Jun-seok: 11% → 24%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETLee Jun-seok: 43% → 25%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Jun-seok | 24% | ▲ 11 | 2¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | $1.3K |
| John Brennan | 22% | 20¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $34.4K | |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18% | ▲ 2 | 7¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $4.5K |
| Tom Homan | 7% | ▼ 4 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $50.5K |
| Anthony Fauci | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | $199K | |
| James Comey | 6% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $22.1K |
| Candace Owens | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | $342 | |
| Susan Rice | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $2.3K |
| Pam Bondi | 5% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | $3.6K | |
| James Clapper | 5% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $9.8K |
| Lisa Cook | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $5.5K | |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $31.6K | |
| Letitia James | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $6.7K | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $5.2K | |
| Brandon Johnson | 4% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $3.8K |
| Adam Schiff | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $19K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $42.8K | |
| Kash Patel | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | $727 | |
| Loretta Lynch | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $4.8K | |
| Barack Obama | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $31.1K | |
| Bill Clinton | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $4.4K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $36.6K | |
| John Kerry | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $523 | |
| Joe Biden | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | $9.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lee Jun-seok, John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil
Search ›-
Trump channels George Washington in the fight to deport Mahmoud KhalilMahmoud Khalil wants to take the case against his deportation all the way to the Supreme Court. If the justices accept it, they’ll be deciding one of the oldest and most controversial questions in American politics — a dispute more than… -
Daniel McCarthy: Why George Washington Would Deport Mahmoud KhalilMahmoud Khalil wants to take the case against his deportation all the way to the Supreme Court — and if the justices accept it, they will be deciding one of the oldest and most controversial questions in American politics, a dispute more… -
Why George Washington Would Deport Mahmoud KhalilMahmoud Khalil wants to take the case against his deportation all the way to the Supreme Court — and if the justices accept it, they will be deciding one of the oldest and most controversial questions in American politics, a dispute more… -
Mahmoud Khalil’s Supreme Court appeal is latest immigration challengeOctober 23, 2026 | by Mark Sherman The Supreme Court already has weighed in on aspects of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, rejecting limits on birthright citizenship, putting the brakes on attempts to deport people using the… -
Mahmoud Khalil asks Supreme Court to hear deportation caseWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Mahmoud Khalil asks Supreme Court to let him keep fighting his detentionBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The former Columbia… -
Mahmoud Khalil Asks U.S. Supreme Court to Block Potential Re-Arrest, DeportationHaaretz Print in a simple, ad-free format Ad-free and in a comfortable reading format Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil on Monday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that opened the door for President Donald… -
Mahmoud Khalil takes detention fight to US Supreme CourtNEW YORK (MNTV) – Lawyers for Mahmoud Khalil, the former Columbia University student and Palestinian rights advocate, have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review his case, escalating a legal fight over immigration detention and the Trump… -
The Mahmoud Khalil and Badar Khan Suri cases: an explainerSauer made that claim in the case of Suri, an Indian national with a Ph.D. in Peace and Conflict Studies who came to the United States in 2022 for a postdoctoral fellowship at Georgetown University. Sauer’s wife is a U.S. citizen of… -
Mahmoud Khalil Asks Supreme Court To Review His CaseOctober 19, 2026, Washington, D.C. – Palestinian advocate Mahmoud Khalil today asked the Supreme Court to hear his case. He is challenging an appellate ruling that federal courts do not have jurisdiction to review the legality of… - Mahmoud Khalil Appeals to the Supreme Court to Avoid DeportationC'mon, just get this guy out of here. Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil on Monday asked the US Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that opened the door for President Donald Trump's administration to re-arrest and deport the…
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Activist Mahmoud Khalil asks Supreme Court to let U.S. judges quickly reverse immigration detentionsIn papers filed with the high court, Khalil asked it to overturn a ruling earlier this year by the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia that found federal courts do not have jurisdiction to review the legality of the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions