Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 21, 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closed Wed 12:59 PM ET · $68.2K today · $74.2K traded · $44.3K at stake

Settled 38.3%A day before, traders had a median of 38.65%

The last odds before it closed

38.6%median
  • ✓ Below 38.6%95%▲ 93
  • 38.6%1%▼ 10
  • 38.7%<1%▼ 11
  • 38.8%<1%▼ 27
  • 38.9%<1%▼ 10
  • 39.0%<1%▼ 7
  • 39.1%<1%▼ 6
  • 39.2%<1%▼ 3
  • Above 39.2%<1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Median: 38.65% on Oct 21, 38.6% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Below 38.6% 95% 72.3K
✗ 38.6% 1% 64.4K
✗ 38.7% <1% 63.4K
✗ 38.8% <1% 38.5K
✗ 38.9% <1% 22.8K
✗ 39.0% <1% 17.1K
✗ 39.1% <1% 16.8K
✗ 39.2% <1% 18.3K
✗ Above 39.2% <1% 22.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump's RCP

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.