Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $4.6K today · $1.7M traded · $691K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

71%Ric Grenell

Ric Grenell71%▲ 3
Susie Wiles37%
Doug Collins31%▲ 1
Amy Gleason30%
Pete Hegseth26%▼ 2
Bill Pulte24%
Steve Witkoff19%
Linda McMahon18%▼ 1
Brooke Rollins17%
Kash Patel17%▼ 2
Howard Lutnick16%▼ 4
Mike Huckabee16%

19 more

Tom Homan15%
Peter Navarro14%
Chris Wright14%
Scott Turner14%
John Ratcliffe13%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 3
Sean Duffy13%
Rodney Scott13%
Jamieson Greer12%
Russell Vought12%▼ 1
Mehmet Oz12%
Doug Burgum12%▼ 2
Steven Cheung12%
Brendan Carr11%
Stephen Miller11%
Kelly Loeffler11%
Marco Rubio10%
Lee Zeldin7%▲ 1
Scott Bessent6%

How the odds have moved

Ric Grenell: 67% on Oct 20, 71% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
✓ Karoline Leavitt	>99%					782.4K
Ric Grenell	71%	▲ 3	70¢	71¢	$1.41	2.9K
Susie Wiles	37%		36¢	37¢	$2.70	320.9K
Doug Collins	31%	▲ 1	29¢	33¢	$3.03	21.6K
Amy Gleason	30%		28¢	31¢	$3.23	90.0K
Pete Hegseth	26%	▼ 2	25¢	26¢	$3.85	1.3M
Bill Pulte	24%		23¢	24¢	$4.17	58.5K
Steve Witkoff	19%		18¢	20¢	$5.00	36.4K
Linda McMahon	18%	▼ 1	17¢	18¢	$5.56	24.3K
Brooke Rollins	17%		16¢	18¢	$5.56	13.3K
Kash Patel	17%	▼ 2	16¢	17¢	$5.88	1.3M
Howard Lutnick	16%	▼ 4	15¢	17¢	$5.88	423.4K
Mike Huckabee	16%		15¢	16¢	$6.25	29.7K
Tom Homan	15%		14¢	16¢	$6.25	40.7K
Peter Navarro	14%		13¢	16¢	$6.25	9.3K
Chris Wright	14%		14¢	15¢	$6.67	51.2K
Scott Turner	14%		13¢	16¢	$6.25	11.5K
John Ratcliffe	13%		12¢	14¢	$7.14	20.0K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	13%	▼ 3	12¢	13¢	$7.69	286.3K
Sean Duffy	13%		12¢	13¢	$7.69	23.3K
Rodney Scott	13%		11¢	14¢	$7.14	3.1K
Jamieson Greer	12%		11¢	12¢	$8.33	5.4K
Russell Vought	12%	▼ 1	11¢	12¢	$8.33	10.8K
Mehmet Oz	12%		11¢	12¢	$8.33	21.9K
Doug Burgum	12%	▼ 2	11¢	12¢	$8.33	14.6K
Steven Cheung	12%		11¢	12¢	$8.33	7.6K
Brendan Carr	11%		10¢	12¢	$8.33	8.2K
Stephen Miller	11%		10¢	11¢	$9.09	130.1K
Kelly Loeffler	11%		10¢	11¢	$9.09	7.5K
Marco Rubio	10%		9¢	10¢	$10.00	179.7K
Lee Zeldin	7%	▲ 1	5¢	9¢	$11.49	46.6K
Scott Bessent	6%		5¢	8¢	$12.99	99.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?Pete HegsethKalshi 26%Polymarket 22%4 pts apart

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

39%Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem39%
Susie Wiles35%▲ 2
Markwayne Mullin33%
Dan Scavino29%▲ 1

12 more

Pete Hegseth22%▼ 2
Tom Homan22%
Kash Patel18%▲ 1
Russell Vought18%▲ 5
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.15%▼ 1
Howard Lutnick14%
Stephen Miller13%▲ 5
John Ratcliffe11%▲ 2
David Sacks9%▲ 1
Marco Rubio8%
Scott Bessent8%▲ 2
Lee Zeldin8%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Ric Grenell, Susie Wiles, Doug Collins

Search ›

Ric Grenell offered Alina Habba’s Turkish billionaire husband access to Trump for $6M Kennedy Center donation that vanished, texts allegeNew York Post · 5 days agoWASHINGTON — Ric Grenell, the embattled former executive director of the Kennedy Center, allegedly promised Turkish billionaire Turhan Mildon access to President Trump while reeling in an alleged $5.6 million donation to the performing…
Susie Wiles teams up with Melania Trump for new White House role after rumors swirled of her demiseNew York Post · 5 days agoWASHINGTON — White House chief of staff Susie Wiles stepped into a new role on Monday amid rumors she was on the rocks with President Trump, with a powerful new ally at her side. Wiles, nicknamed “the Ice Maiden,” will serve as co-chair of…
POTUS Wants Answers: Kennedy Center Chaos as Ric Grenell Accused of Selling White House Access, $5.6 Million 'Donation' Allegedly MissingThe Western Journal · 4 days agoA burgeoning scandal involving former Kennedy Center Director Ric Grenell and a missing multimillion-dollar donation appears to have just gotten significantly worse for the embattled diplomat. The controversy erupted last week after…
I asked AI to predict what Susie Wiles, 69, would look like without her MAGA makeoverThe Mirror US · 5 days agoSusie Wiles is Trump’s Chief of Staff(Image: Getty Images) Artificial intelligence has predicted what the infamous Susie Wiles could really look like now without any of her rumored Botox, fillers, or heavy makeup. The 69-year-old is…
Trump Gives Susie Wiles an Additional RolePolitical Wire · 5 days ago“Three days after responding to reports that he’d discussed replacing the White House chief of staff by telling reporters there was ‘zero chance’ of that, President Donald Trump tasked Susie Wiles with leading a new initiative,” the…
About That Rumor That Susie Wiles Is on Her Way Out...redstate.com · 5 days agoIt was an absolute feeding frenzy last week as various media outlets and political commentators feasted on the news of Katie Zacharia being reassigned after a few short days as White House press secretary and Kimberly Guilfoyle being…
EXCLUSIVE: I asked AI to predict what Susie Wiles, 69, would look like without her MAGA makeoverThe Mirror US · 5 days agoEXCLUSIVE: Amid rumors that Donald Trump’s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles may leave after the midterm elections, AI has predicted what she could look like without her MAGA makeover Artificial intelligence has predicted what the infamous Susie…
Trump says Susie Wiles will remain in her role at the White House ‘until the end’NBC News · 7 days agoNBC News WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said in a brief phone interview Saturday that his White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, will remain in the job and cited his administration’s success as a reason.
Former Trump aide warns replacing Susie Wiles with 'b------ crazy' Stephen Miller would be 'very scary thing'Irish Star · 5 days agoOne of Trump's fomer deputy press secretaries said that having Miller as Chief of Staff would be very scary and bad(Image: AFP via Getty Images) A former aide to President Donald Trump is warning that it would be a "very scary thing" if…
‘Terrifying prospect’: Former Trump official sounds alarm over Stephen Miller replacing Susie WilesMEAWW News · 5 days agoWASHINGTON, DC: A former Trump ally has flagged the possibility of Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff, calling it a “terrifying prospect.”’ Recent reports suggested that Trump unhappy with his top advisers…
Susie Wiles joins Melania Trump’s women’s health task force amid White House ouster rumorsMEAWW News · 5 days agoWASHINGTON, DC: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has taken on a new role as co-chair of first lady Melania Trump’s task force on women’s health. Wiles appeared alongside the first lady at a White House ceremony on Monday, October 19…
NEW DETAILS | Strange text message at center of confusing story involing Ric Grenell and Alina Habba’s husband.citizenfreepress.com · 5 days agoThe Greatest News Site On The Internet. Home of CFP Nation. NEW DETAILS | Strange text message at center of confusing story involing Ric Grenell and Alina Habba’s husband. Posted by Kane on October 20, 2026 12:15 am

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$1.7M (5,397,979 contracts)

Today$4.6K

This week$1.7M

At stake$691K

In the news1 headlines today, 55 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.