Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Polymarket Finance › IPOs & deals Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $12.5K today · $6.7M traded · $661K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

54%SpaceX

SpaceX54%▼ 14
Anthropic39%▲ 11
OpenAI<1%
ByteDance<1%
Stripe<1%
Databricks<1%
SHEIN<1%
Waymo<1%
Revolut<1%
Discord<1%
Perplexity AI<1%
Kraken<1%

How the odds have moved

SpaceX: 69% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 8 PM ETSpaceX: 68% → 54%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
SpaceX	54%	▼ 14	53¢	54¢	$1.85	$1M
Anthropic	39%	▲ 11	35¢	43¢	$2.33	$1.4M
OpenAI	<1%		0¢	1¢		$59K
ByteDance	<1%			0¢		$223K
Stripe	<1%			0¢		$173K
Databricks	<1%			0¢		$629K
SHEIN	<1%			0¢		$636K
Waymo	<1%			0¢		$345K
Revolut	<1%			0¢		$66K
Discord	<1%			0¢		$204K
Perplexity AI	<1%			0¢		$134K
Kraken	<1%			0¢		$668K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Largest IPO

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Delhi food safety sting exposes dirty kitchens; Jio Platforms launches largest IPOIndia Today · 3 days agoAn India Today Spot Check investigation uncovers severe food safety and hygiene violations across eateries in Delhi's Paharganj and areas surrounding the New Delhi Railway Station. The report follows an enforcement drive by Maharashtra FDA…
CASE STUDY | The Largest IPO in Indian History Reveals How Crypto Markets Are Becoming Price Discovery VenuesBitKE · 4 days agoSimilar pre-IPO contracts have tracked SpaceX and Cerebras. The timing is significant. CASE STUDY | The Tesla Stock Surge Shows How Crypto Exchanges Are Emerging as First Stop for Price Discovery The JIOUSDT contract, launched on October…
JIO IPO - Reliance Industries Shares Gain more than 1% after India's Largest IPO opens for subscriptionIndia Infoline · 6 days ago21 Oct 2026 , 11:58 AM Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) shares gained approximately 1.71% on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on October 21, 2026, as its digital services subsidiary, Jio Platforms Limited, opened its initial public…
GCash debuts at PSE with largest IPO in PH history | ABS-CBN NewsABS-CBN · 7 days agoGCash debuts at PSE with largest IPO in PH history ABS-CBN GCash debuts at PSE with largest IPO in PH history Your go-to source for the latest news, entertainment highlights, exclusive interviews, and updates on your favorite Kapamilya…
Mynt, GCash parent, raises P60.9b in largest IPO, ends flat on PSE debutmanilastandard.net · 7 days agoMynt Inc., the parent company of e-wallet operator GCash, listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) on Tuesday after raising about P60.9 billion in ...
Crypto traders are pricing Reliance Jio at about $110 billion@coindesk · 5 days agoCrypto traders are already betting on the largest IPO in India’s history, putting a $110 billion price tag on Indian telecoms giant Jio Platforms as its official three-day public subscription gets underway. The JIOUSDT perpetual contract…
Jio IPO breaks multiple records: From fundraising to investor demand, how the mega issue rewrote India’s IPO historyThe Economic Times · 3 days agoThe issue set records across fundraising, anchor investor demand and applications, while attracting the highest qualified institutional buyer (QIB) subscription among India’s five largest IPOs. It was fully subscribed within 100 minutes of…
EBRD, IFC sign on to Banque du Caire’s upsized IPOEnterpriseAM Egypt · 46 h agoREMEMBER- The prospectus allowed the sale to grow to 45% depending on demand, and a government official told us earlier this month that the banks running the offering had recommended going bigger after the roadshows drew interest from…
Jio Platforms raises ₹8,110 crore from anchor investors ahead of India's largest IPOCNBCTV18 · 7 days agoJio Platforms has raised ₹8,109.84 crore from 212 anchor investors ahead of its blockbuster initial public offering (IPO), drawing support from some of the world's largest asset managers, including BlackRock, Capital Group, Fidelity…
How a SpaceX and Tesla Merger Would Reshape Musk’s AI EmpireDecrypt · 5 days agoElon Musk said Tuesday that the boards of SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees to study merging his two biggest companies, a deal that would put rockets, electric cars, humanoid robots, a social network and the Grok chatbot…
Reliance Jio IPO listing on Oct 28: Will Mukesh Ambani's firm be in top 5 m-cap? RIL to hold top spotmint · 3 days agoAs Jio Platforms Initial Public Offering (IPO) closed with bumper subscription, investors are now eagerly awaiting the share allotment results ahead of its scheduled listing next week. Backed by Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Limited…
Banque du Caire’s IPO grows to 45% as the EBRD and IFC sign onEnterpriseAM Egypt · 46 h agoSunday, 25 Oct 2026 Good morning, friends. Tomorrow’s pricing of the state’s biggest share sale in years will tell us a lot about how foreign money now sees Egypt. At Dekheila, three partners have signed up to study a 273k sqm re-export…

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Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO by __?

Nov 24, 2026even chance by

October 31, 2026<1%
November 15, 20262%▼ 2
November 30, 202689%▲ 33

2 more

December 15, 202693%▲ 11
December 31, 202694%▲ 11

Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

30%$1.75–$2.0T

$1.75–$2.0T30%▲ 1
$2.0–$2.25T23%▲ 3
$1.5–$1.75T17%▼ 3

7 more

$2.25–$2.5T13%▲ 5
$1.25–$1.5T4%▼ 2
$2.5–$2.75T4%▲ 1
<$1.25T3%▼ 4
No IPO by December 31, 20272%
$2.75–$3.0T2%▲ 1
$3.0T+2%

Finance › IPOs & deals

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

99%$ANT

$ANT99%▲ 45
$ANTH1%▼ 24
$ANAI<1%▼ 3

6 more

$AAI<1%▼ 10
$APBC<1%▼ 4
$ARPC<1%
$CLDE<1%▼ 4
$CLAU<1%
$CLD<1%▼ 1

Finance › IPOs & deals

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

88%November 2026

November 202688%▲ 28
December 20267%▼ 16
January 20273%▼ 3

13 more

April 20271%▼ 2
March 20271%▼ 3
May 20271%▼ 1
October 20261%▼ 1
June 20271%
February 2027<1%▼ 1
July 2027<1%
August 2027<1%
October 2027<1%
November 2027<1%
December 2027<1%
September 2027<1%
No IPO before 2028<1%▼ 1

Finance › IPOs & deals

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.46Tmedian

$750B$2.75T

Median $1.46TMiddle half $970.61B – $1.79T

Finance › IPOs & deals

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Nov 19, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 202687%▲ 14
Before Jan 1, 202795%▲ 15

3 more

Before Feb 1, 202795%▲ 7
Before Mar 1, 202795%▲ 4
Before Apr 1, 202796%▲ 3

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.7M

Today$12.5K

This week$54.1K

At stake$661K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Space Exploration TechnologiesSPCX · about the company146.90−0.40%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions