When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Kalshi Finance › IPOs & deals Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $6.1K today · $201K traded · $86.6K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

76%Before 2028
  • Before 202876%▲ 1
  • Before May 1, 202756%▼ 2
  • Before Apr 1, 202749%▲ 3
  • Before Mar 1, 202745%▲ 1
  • Before Feb 1, 202738%▲ 4
  • Before Jan 1, 202717%▼ 9
  • Before Dec 1, 20268%▼ 10
  • Before Nov 1, 20264%▼ 5

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before 2028 76% ▲ 1 74¢ 77¢ $1.30 39.3K
Before May 1, 2027 56% ▼ 2 54¢ 59¢ $1.69 101.2K
Before Apr 1, 2027 49% ▲ 3 47¢ 50¢ $2.00 80.7K
Before Mar 1, 2027 45% ▲ 1 42¢ 47¢ $2.13 49.9K
Before Feb 1, 2027 38% ▲ 4 37¢ 38¢ $2.63 36.6K
Before Jan 1, 2027 17% ▼ 9 15¢ 18¢ $5.56 98.6K
Before Dec 1, 2026 8% ▼ 10 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 69.3K
Before Nov 1, 2026 4% ▼ 5 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 225.1K
Before Sep 1, 2026 1% $100.00 389.8K
Before Oct 1, 2026 1% $100.00 413.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: SpaceX, Tesla and SpaceX, Corporate

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  • Applied Intuition3%
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  • Anysphere (Cursor)3%
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  • Stripe2%
  • Ramp2%
  • Mistral AI2%
  • Waymo2%
  • Anduril Industries2%
  • Epic Games2%
  • WHOOP1%
  • Vanta1%
  • Glean1%
  • Brex1%
  • Deel<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.