Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
32%December 31
- June 30, 202732%▲ 1
- December 3132%▲ 3
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Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement? (Before Jan 2027)
The odds
49%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
- Before Jul 1, 202714%
- Before Jan 1, 202849%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 17.3K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 31.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 49% | ▼ 1 | 47¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 1.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Clarence Thomas
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5 Superb Clarence Thomas Opinions To Mark His 35 Years At SCOTUSThe Federalist has compiled five of Thomas’ greatest opinions to commemorate his 35 years on the nation’s highest bench. It may not be hard to believe, but Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas just hit yet another major career milestone… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s… -
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s effort to restrict transgender treatment for prison inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court rebuffed the Trump administration’s emergency petition to immediately revive its restrictions on transgender treatment for inmates in federal prisons on Wednesday. President Trump’s team had requested the… -
Virginia ThomasGinni Thomas pushed White House to fight 2020 election results. What are the implications? The House Select Committee is looking at thousands of text messages given by former Trum ... Inside the White House with Liz Landers Stand with free… -
Supreme Court hands Trump a rare loss on transgender prison care policyThe Supreme Court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from suspending hormone therapy and other treatments for transgender Americans in federal prisons, a rare win for transgender rights at the conservative high court. The court… -
Today in Supreme Court History: October 23, 1991Josh Blackman | 10.23.2026 7:00 AM 10/23/1991: Justice Clarence Thomas takes oath. J.D. Tuccille | 10.23.2026 7:00 AM Meagan O'Rourke | From the November 2026 issue Javier Milei | From the December 2026 issue Charles Oliver | 10.23.2026… -
Supreme court blocks Trump’s bid to restrict gender care for trans prisonersDecision stands in contrast to recent trans rights actions from court that often sides with Trump administration The US supreme court went against Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday, refusing to allow the immediate enforcement of… -
Supreme Court rejects Trump policy restricting treatment for transgender federal inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Wednesday said the Trump administration cannot enforce a new policy that restricts treatment for transgender inmates in federal prison. The justices in a brief order rejected an emergency application filed… -
Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict some medical treatments for transgender inmatesUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 11:35 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday left intact a lower court decision that blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a new Bureau of Prisons policy that would end… -
Supreme Court order leaves federal prison transgender services in place for nowJustices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito said they would have granted the government’s request to reverse the rulings. The U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 21 left in place lower-court rulings that require the federal prison system to continue… -
Supreme Court Declines to Block Texas App Store Age Verification LawThe U.S. Supreme Court declined on July 6 to block a Texas law that requires app stores and developers to confirm the age of mobile device users and for minors to secure parental consent to make purchases or download apps. Although that…
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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Aug 7, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 7
- Before Apr 1, 202731%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202743%▲ 1
2 more
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions