Who will be arrested in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Supreme Court & courts Closes Dec 31 · $1.2K today · $109K traded · $34.9K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

37%Ilhan Omar
  • Ilhan Omar37%▼ 3
  • John Brennan22%▼ 1
  • Mahmoud Khalil14%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan9%▲ 4
  • Anthony Fauci9%
  • Letitia James8%▲ 1
  • James Clapper8%
  • Adam Schiff7%
  • Lee Jae Myung6%▼ 1
  • Lisa Cook6%
  • Susan Rice6%
  • Candace Owens5%
13 more
  • Benjamin Netanyahu5%
  • Lee Jun-seok5%
  • Loretta Lynch4%
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%▼ 1
  • Bill Clinton4%
  • Hillary Clinton4%
  • Pam Bondi4%
  • Gavin Newsom3%
  • John Kerry3%
  • Brandon Johnson3%
  • Kash Patel3%
  • Joe Biden3%
  • Barack Obama2%

How the odds have moved

Ilhan Omar: 41% on Oct 20, 37% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 11 PM ETIlhan Omar: 31% → 39%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETIlhan Omar: 43% → 32%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Ilhan Omar 37% ▼ 3 36¢ 37¢ $2.70 26.6K
John Brennan 22% ▼ 1 21¢ 22¢ $4.55 152.1K
Mahmoud Khalil 14% ▲ 1 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 11.9K
Tom Homan 9% ▲ 4 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 13.6K
Anthony Fauci 9% 9¢ 9¢ $11.24 196.9K
Letitia James 8% ▲ 1 6¢ 10¢ $10.10 162.8K
James Clapper 8% 8¢ 8¢ $12.66 65.8K
Adam Schiff 7% 5¢ 9¢ $11.11 57.5K
Lee Jae Myung 6% ▼ 1 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 3.2K
Lisa Cook 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.95 34.1K
Susan Rice 6% 4¢ 8¢ $13.33 13.7K
Candace Owens 5% 2¢ 8¢ $12.05 6.0K
Benjamin Netanyahu 5% 4¢ 6¢ $17.24 10.7K
Lee Jun-seok 5% 2¢ 8¢ $12.66 3.6K
Loretta Lynch 4% 1¢ 8¢ $12.99 8.7K
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 5¢ $19.61 13.4K
Bill Clinton 4% 3¢ 4¢ $23.81 43.2K
Hillary Clinton 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.41 220.9K
Pam Bondi 4% 2¢ 5¢ $19.61 13.4K
Gavin Newsom 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.41 48.4K
John Kerry 3% 2¢ 5¢ $21.28 7.0K
Brandon Johnson 3% 2¢ 4¢ $23.26 4.1K
Kash Patel 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 6.8K
Joe Biden 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 10.2K
Barack Obama 2% 2¢ 3¢ $34.48 264.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ilhan Omar, John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil

Search ›
  • Trump channels George Washington in the fight to deport Mahmoud KhalilNew York Post · 3 days agoMahmoud Khalil wants to take the case against his deportation all the way to the Supreme Court. If the justices accept it, they’ll be deciding one of the oldest and most controversial questions in American politics — a dispute more than…
  • Mahmoud Khalil asks Supreme Court to hear deportation caseWashington Examiner · 5 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
  • Trump warns Ilhan Omar 'could go to jail'Fox News · 4 days agoFox News Trump warns Ilhan Omar 'could go to jail' Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley and Minnesota journalist Liz Collins discuss the investigation into rampant fraud in Minnesota as the issue emerges as a top concern for voters. Fox…
  • ’Not to my knowledge’: Ilhan Omar rejects allegations she married her brotherFox News · 3 days agoFox News ’Not to my knowledge’: Ilhan Omar rejects allegations she married her brother Fox News senior national correspondent Kevin Corke has the latest on the upcoming legal battle for Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on ‘Jesse Watters…
  • Ilhan Omar gives first post-raid interview on MS NOWFox News · 3 days agoRep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., told MS NOW's Chris Hayes that she believes the raid on her home was an effort to appeal to Republican base voters and intimidate voters. Ilhan Omar gives first post-raid interview on MS NOW Rep. Ilhan Omar…
  • Trump says Ilhan Omar could go to jail or be deportedFox News · 4 days agoFox News Trump says Ilhan Omar could go to jail or be deported President Donald Trump suggests Rep. Ilhan Omar could face jail or deportation over an ongoing investigation after a federal raid of her house.
  • Ilhan Omar BREAKS SILENCE, asks for donations amid federal probesFox Business · 4 days agoFox Business Ilhan Omar BREAKS SILENCE, asks for donations amid federal probes Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., speaks out after her sister voluntarily spoke with federal investigators following the raid of her D.C. home.
  • Rep. Ilhan Omar describes government search of her homeThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Democratic…
  • Rep Ilhan Omar could be deported, former federal prosecutor saysFox News · 3 days agoFormer federal prosecutor Brett Tolman discusses the federal investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on 'America Reports.' ... Rep Ilhan Omar could be deported, former federal prosecutor says Former federal prosecutor Brett Tolman…
  • Mahmoud Khalil asks Supreme Court to let him keep fighting his detentionThe Washington Post · 5 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The former Columbia…
  • Ilhan Omar appeals for campaign donations amid federal immigration probeFox Business · 4 days agoA federal investigation into the immigration status of Congresswoman Ilhan Omar prompts her to appeal for campaign donations on social media. Wall Street Journal 'Free Expression' deputy editor Jack Butler joins Stuart Varney to discuss…
  • TMZ & NY Post heated debate on Ilhan Omar investigation | The Low DownNew York Post · 4 days ago(Video) | New York Post New York Post Rep. Ilhan Omar faces renewed scrutiny as TMZ and the Post discuss the intensifying probe into her immigration status.

Related markets

All supreme court & courts ›
Politics › Supreme Court & courts

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

45%Ilhan Omar
  • Ilhan Omar45%
  • Cassidy Hutchinson29%▼ 1
  • John Brennan22%
40 more
  • Dan J. Sullivan17%
  • Anthony Fauci14%
  • Fani Willis14%
  • Jack Smith11%▼ 1
  • Gustavo Petro11%▼ 1
  • Lisa Cook10%
  • James Clapper10%
  • Andrew Weissmann10%
  • Gavin Newsom10%
  • Peter Strzok9%
  • Hunter Biden9%
  • Keith Ellison9%
  • Tim Walz9%▼ 1
  • Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%▲ 2
  • Adam Schiff8%▼ 1
  • Chris Krebs8%
  • Miles Taylor7%
  • Lisa Monaco7%
  • Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
  • Letitia James6%▼ 4
  • Alvin Bragg6%
  • Jacob Frey6%
  • Mark Milley6%
  • Elissa Slotkin6%
  • Mark Kelly6%
  • Liz Cheney6%
  • Joe Kent6%
  • Leon Black6%
  • E. Jean Carroll6%
  • Christopher Wray5%
  • Chris Christie5%
  • Tucker Carlson5%
  • Reid Hoffman5%
  • George Soros5%
  • Pam Bondi4%
  • Jerome Powell4%
  • Hillary Clinton4%▼ 1
  • Bill Clinton3%▼ 1
  • Barack Obama3%
  • Joe Biden3%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $6.7K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.