Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
39%December 31
- June 30, 202739%▲ 11
- December 3139%▲ 3
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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
Jun 30, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202723%▼ 5
- Before Apr 1, 202728%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202751%▲ 6
- Before Oct 1, 202756%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▼ 18
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 16% on Oct 20, 23% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 63.1K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 23% | ▼ 5 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 108.9K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 914 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 51% | ▲ 6 | 49¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 23.0K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 56% | ▲ 2 | 49¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 8.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56% | ▼ 18 | 49¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 300 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Samuel Alito
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Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Except for Thomas and Alito, Supreme Court rules taxpayers must pay for trans prisoners’ sex change operationsby WorldTribune Staff, October 25, 2026 — Real World News The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday temporarily blocked the Trump Administration from enforcing a policy that would cut off taxpayer-funded gender-transition care and surgeries for… - The Distinctive Role of Justice Samuel Alito: From a Politics of Restoration to a Politics of DissentBecause Justice Alito’s pluralistic methodology is conventional, one must view him from a different angle to discover his distinctive role on the Court. It will help to focus on the time in constitutional history that may be fast arriving…
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Supreme Court justice turns on her own court with dire warning about American democracyAmericans interviewed on Capitol Hill were split over whether the Supreme Court of the United States should expand as Congress introduces proposals to make reforms to its current size. (Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital) Supreme Court… -
Davis v. Federal Election CommissionThis case challenges a provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) known as the Millionaire’s Amendment that raises the limits on contributions to congressional candidates if their opponent spends above a threshold… -
Supreme Court Deliberates on Reviving "Administrative Closure" for Immigration Cases: What's at Stake for Cubans with Pending Processes?Saturday, October 24, 2026 by Grace Ramos The United States Supreme Court is currently considering an urgent request that could shape the future of hundreds of thousands of paused immigration cases, including those affecting thousands of… -
"Executive Orders and the Ballot Box: Limits of Presidential Power Over Elections" #ELBSociety for the Rule of Law recorded webinar with Richard Bernstein, Professor Larry Schwartztol of Harvard Law School, and Bruce V. Spiva, Senior Vice President at the Campaign Legal Center. Gary T. Schwartz Distinguished Professor of Law… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s… -
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s effort to restrict transgender treatment for prison inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court rebuffed the Trump administration’s emergency petition to immediately revive its restrictions on transgender treatment for inmates in federal prisons on Wednesday. President Trump’s team had requested the… -
Buried in Devastating Supreme Court Decision Is Hope Yet for Trump's Election Integrity OrderThe Supreme Court decision that launched President Trump's firestorm on Truth Social may contain a silver lining. While the midterm elections are but weeks away, and it will once again be a mail-in ballot free-for-all, there is hope yet…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions