Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
29%December 31
- June 30, 202729%▲ 1
- December 3129%▼ 1
Install
Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
The odds
26%chance▼ 3
How the odds have moved
Yes: 24% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | ▼ 3 | 24¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 6.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, Trump's Section
Search ›-
‘Tariff Man’ finally found tariffs he doesn’t likePresident Donald Trump loves tariffs so much that during his first term, he nicknamed himself “Tariff Man.” Trump tripled down on tariffs during his second term, lobbing them on friends and enemies alike, in an attempt to revive American… -
Russia waiver leaves tariff leverage intactDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy. You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Ari Hawkins President Donald Trump’s decision… -
The U.S. badly needs new tariff lawsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Right now, the legal… -
EU tariffs aimed at China hitting Ukraine, steel boss saysThe boss of one of Ukraine's biggest steel companies has called on the European Union to drop import restrictions on products made from the country, arguing it has been "bundled together" in measures aimed a curbing cheap imports from the… -
Trump’s Tariff Strategy Collides With $2 Trillion US DeficitOct 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM EDT President Donald Trump's push to use tariffs to raise federal revenue and help tackle the national debt collided with a stark fiscal reality Friday: The United States ended the 2026 fiscal year with a budget… -
Tariffs pose a risk to US-India relationshipPresident Donald Trump faces a deadline Sunday to decide whether to impose certain penalties on other countries under a bipartisan sanctions law he signed last month. Any move by him to waive sanctions on Russian individuals or entities… -
Trump waives key Russia-related sanctions, tariffs before they take effect under new lawPresident Donald Trump waived key Russia-related U.S. sanctions and tariffs days before they were to take effect under a law he signed last month, including duties on the country's goods and penalties for buying its oil and gas. In an… -
Cape Town's dirty tariff secret revealed - Brett HerronCAPE TOWN’S DIRTY TARIFF SECRET REVEALED… Mayor of Cape Town Geordin Hill-Lewis must come clean on the City’s court case to charge Capetonians more for electricity. The DA has not told residents about this litigation. It was revealed in a… -
Trump waives many Russian sanctions, tariffs under new law backed by Lindsey GrahamThe 'Big Money in the Morning' panel analyzes President Donald Trump announcing a Russian diesel deal, the energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and looks ahead to the midterms as the president and VP JD Vance stump in Ohio… -
Democrats would end Trump's tariffs. They haven't said how.(The Center Square) – U.S. House Democrats say they would undo President Donald Trump's tariffs. They have not said what would replace the revenue, and they have not addressed the Section 301 tariffs now hitting 60 trading partners. The… -
Tariffs and disruption complicate aftermarket supply chain decisionsWith ongoing disruption in today’s supply chain, jobbers and distributors face a lingering issue when it comes to deciding how much inventory to carry to maintain customer supply. While slowdowns in production do little to temper repair… -
Which Foods Are Most Vulnerable to Import Tariffs?The U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record $43.7B in 2025 The growing importance of imported food is evident in the nation’s agricultural trade balance. For most of the past three decades, the U.S. exported more agricultural products…
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All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
37%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar37%
- Cassidy Hutchinson30%
- John Brennan22%▼ 5
40 more
- Anthony Fauci16%▼ 7
- Lisa Cook14%▼ 2
- Fani Willis14%
- Jack Smith14%
- Dan J. Sullivan13%
- Gustavo Petro12%▲ 1
- Letitia James11%
- Peter Strzok11%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison10%
- Tim Walz10%▼ 1
- Andrew Weissmann10%▼ 1
- Gavin Newsom10%
- James Clapper9%▲ 1
- Chris Krebs9%▲ 2
- Adam Schiff9%
- Alvin Bragg9%
- Hunter Biden8%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom7%▲ 2
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%▼ 3
- Jacob Frey7%
- E. Jean Carroll7%▼ 1
- Lisa Monaco7%▼ 1
- Liz Cheney6%
- Mark Milley6%▲ 1
- Mark Kelly6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Leon Black6%
- Miles Taylor6%▼ 1
- Christopher Wray5%
- Tucker Carlson5%▼ 1
- Joe Kent5%▲ 1
- Reid Hoffman5%
- George Soros5%
- Hillary Clinton4%▼ 1
- Barack Obama4%▼ 1
- Bill Clinton4%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Jerome Powell3%▼ 1
- Joe Biden3%
- Chris Christie2%
Who will be arrested in 2026?
36%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar36%▲ 8
- John Brennan22%▲ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil15%
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%▼ 1
- Letitia James8%
- James Clapper8%▼ 1
- Lisa Cook7%▲ 1
- Lee Jae Myung7%
- Lee Jun-seok6%▼ 1
- Candace Owens6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu6%
- Gavin Newsom6%
- Susan Rice6%▼ 1
- Adam Schiff5%
- Tom Homan5%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero5%▼ 2
- Loretta Lynch5%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Brandon Johnson4%
- Bill Clinton3%
- John Kerry3%
- Barack Obama3%
- Joe Biden3%
- Kash Patel3%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
59%Roybal v. Griffith
- Roybal v. Griffith59%▲ 2
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice21%▼ 20
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day21%▼ 1
6 more
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin20%▼ 2
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists9%▼ 1
- Duncan v. Bonta6%▲ 3
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche6%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory5%▼ 1
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States1%▼ 34
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? (By January 20, 2029)
17%Andrew Oldham
- Andrew Oldham17%
- D. John Sauer14%▲ 1
- Ted Cruz9%
38 more
- James Ho8%▼ 1
- Aileen Cannon7%
- Emil Bove4%
- Michael Park3%
- Neomi Rao2%▲ 1
- Mike Lee2%
- Barbara Lagoa2%
- Amul Thapar2%▼ 1
- Steven Menashi2%▲ 1
- Patrick Bumatay1%
- Lawrence VanDyke1%
- Allison Jones Rushing1%
- Kathryn Mizelle1%
- David Stras1%
- Kenneth Lee1%
- Kevin Newsom1%
- Gregory G. Katsas1%
- Ron DeSantis1%▼ 1
- Yaakov Roth1%
- Anna St. John1%
- Matthew Schwartz1%
- Eric Tung1%
- Stuart Kyle Duncan<1%
- Matthew Kacsmaryk<1%
- Stephanos Bibas<1%
- Trevor McFadden<1%
- Britt Grant<1%
- Mark Martin<1%
- Evan Young<1%
- Clint Bolick<1%
- Kevin Brobson<1%
- Joan Larsen<1%
- Kate Comerford Todd<1%
- Patrick Wyrick<1%
- Kristen Waggoner<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Morse Tan<1%
- Allison Eid<1%
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