Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
30%December 31
- June 30, 202730%▼ 2
- December 3130%▲ 2
Install
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? (By January 20, 2029)
The odds
14%Andrew Oldham
- Andrew Oldham14%▲ 1
- D. John Sauer12%
- James Ho9%
- Ted Cruz8%
- Aileen Cannon7%
- Emil Bove4%
- Michael Park4%
- Neomi Rao2%
- Mike Lee2%
- Barbara Lagoa2%
- Amul Thapar2%
- Steven Menashi2%
29 more
- Patrick Bumatay1%
- Lawrence VanDyke1%
- Allison Jones Rushing1%
- Kathryn Mizelle1%
- David Stras1%
- Kenneth Lee1%
- Kevin Newsom1%
- Gregory G. Katsas1%
- Ron DeSantis1%
- Yaakov Roth1%
- Anna St. John1%
- Matthew Schwartz1%
- Eric Tung1%▼ 1
- Stuart Kyle Duncan<1%
- Matthew Kacsmaryk<1%
- Trevor McFadden<1%
- Stephanos Bibas<1%
- Britt Grant<1%
- Mark Martin<1%
- Evan Young<1%
- Clint Bolick<1%
- Kevin Brobson<1%
- Joan Larsen<1%
- Kate Comerford Todd<1%
- Patrick Wyrick<1%
- Kristen Waggoner<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Morse Tan<1%
- Allison Eid<1%
How the odds have moved
Andrew Oldham: 17% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 14% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 43.4K |
| D. John Sauer | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 20.0K | |
| James Ho | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 32.6K | |
| Ted Cruz | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.24 | 46.0K | |
| Aileen Cannon | 7% | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | 46.8K | |
| Emil Bove | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | 18.0K | |
| Michael Park | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 17.2K | |
| Neomi Rao | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 16.6K | |
| Mike Lee | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.3K | |
| Barbara Lagoa | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 16.3K | |
| Amul Thapar | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 49.2K | |
| Steven Menashi | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.5K | |
| Patrick Bumatay | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | 15.0K | |
| Lawrence VanDyke | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | 18.5K | |
| Allison Jones Rushing | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 13.0K | |
| Kathryn Mizelle | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | 16.6K | |
| David Stras | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | 13.2K | |
| Kenneth Lee | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | 14.2K | |
| Kevin Newsom | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 17.5K | ||
| Gregory G. Katsas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 34.3K | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 18.8K | ||
| Yaakov Roth | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 333 | ||
| Anna St. John | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 322 | ||
| Matthew Schwartz | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.1K | ||
| Eric Tung | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.2K | |
| Stuart Kyle Duncan | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.7K | ||
| Matthew Kacsmaryk | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 14.4K | ||
| Trevor McFadden | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.8K | ||
| Stephanos Bibas | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 24.1K | ||
| Britt Grant | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 18.2K | ||
| Mark Martin | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.3K | ||
| Evan Young | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.9K | ||
| Clint Bolick | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 13.9K | ||
| Kevin Brobson | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.1K | ||
| Joan Larsen | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 22.6K | ||
| Kate Comerford Todd | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 22.3K | ||
| Patrick Wyrick | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.0K | ||
| Kristen Waggoner | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 15.2K | ||
| Tom Cotton | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 21.0K | ||
| Morse Tan | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 23.9K | ||
| Allison Eid | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Andrew Oldham, D. John Sauer
Search ›-
Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Second Amendment fight moves beyond guns with Supreme Court poised for big rulingNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Two federal court… -
Switchblade, body armor rulings reveal stakes in Supreme Court AR-15 showdownNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Switchblade, body armor… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
US supreme court sides with Republicans on rejecting student IDs in New Hampshire midtermsVoting rights advocates say directive would disenfranchise young and low-income voters, but Republicans say it’s needed to combat voter fraud The US supreme court has cleared the way for New Hampshire to prohibit student IDs as a form of… -
Home distillers rejoice as US Supreme Court considers whether to finally legalise moonshineGeno Stecks, 66, of Wyoming, began making homemade moonshine two years ago Wyoming mechanic and amateur moonshiner Geno Stecks proudly details the modifications he's made at his two-bedroom home to facilitate his hobby of distilling liquor… -
Supreme Court blocks use of student IDs as voter identification in New HampshireFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Jackson again publicly breaks with Supreme Court as justices side with GOP in last-minute voter ID fightFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to resume Big Bend border wallCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump administration asks… -
Supreme Court rules New Hampshire can ban use of student IDs for midterm votersOctober 22, 2026 / 7:53 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The justices granted a Republican-backed emergency appeal and… -
Supreme Court says New Hampshire can limit use of student IDs for votingThe Supreme Court on Thursday allowed New Hampshire officials to limit when voters may use a student ID to receive a ballot, agreeing that a lower court ruling that blocked enforcement of the policy was too close to Election Day. The… -
Supreme Court justice turns on her own court with dire warning about American democracyAmericans interviewed on Capitol Hill were split over whether the Supreme Court of the United States should expand as Congress introduces proposals to make reforms to its current size. (Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital) Supreme Court…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
45%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar45%▼ 4
- Cassidy Hutchinson29%▼ 1
- John Brennan22%
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan17%
- Anthony Fauci14%
- Fani Willis14%
- Jack Smith11%
- Gustavo Petro11%▼ 1
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Andrew Weissmann10%
- Gavin Newsom10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Keith Ellison9%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%
- Tim Walz8%▼ 1
- Adam Schiff8%▼ 1
- Chris Krebs8%
- Alvin Bragg7%▲ 2
- E. Jean Carroll7%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor7%
- Lisa Monaco7%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
- Letitia James6%
- Jacob Frey6%
- Pam Bondi6%▲ 2
- Mark Milley6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Leon Black6%
- Chris Christie5%
- Christopher Wray5%
- Jerome Powell5%▲ 1
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Reid Hoffman5%
- George Soros5%
- Hillary Clinton4%▼ 1
- Barack Obama3%
- Bill Clinton3%▼ 1
- Joe Biden3%
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
23%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202723%
Who will be arrested in 2026?
25%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar25%▼ 16
- John Brennan22%▼ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil14%
22 more
- Tom Homan10%▲ 5
- Anthony Fauci9%
- Letitia James8%▲ 1
- James Clapper8%
- Adam Schiff7%
- Susan Rice6%
- Lisa Cook6%
- Lee Jae Myung6%▼ 1
- Candace Owens5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- Loretta Lynch4%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%▼ 1
- Pam Bondi4%▲ 1
- Bill Clinton4%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Gavin Newsom3%
- John Kerry3%
- Brandon Johnson3%
- Kash Patel3%
- Joe Biden3%
- Barack Obama2%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Aug 9, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202720%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202732%
- Before Jul 1, 202744%▲ 2
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202759%
- Before Jan 1, 202864%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.