Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance
Install
Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
The odds
36%chance▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 39% on Oct 20, 36% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36% | ▲ 2 | 34¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 5.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Census
Search ›-
NY Elections, Census and Redistricting Update 10/19/26Brooklyn Democratic Leadership Fight Continues In State Court Julio Pena III v. Nydia Velázquez et al Justice Sweeney will hold an order to show cause on October 20th, where petitioner Julio Pena III will argue why an order should not be… -
MHA PLANS 2027 CENSUS TABLEAU FOR R-DAY PARADEUnion home ministry will propose a Census 2027 tableau for the Republic Day parade next year as part of its public outreach campaign for the largest administrative exercise in the world, according to an official circular issued by the… -
Lao PDR Releases Landmark 2025 Census Data to Guide Future DevelopmentAccording to the result, the 2025 Census recorded an enumerated population of 6.74 million, whereas the country's true population is estimated at 7.24 million. Furthermore, the census identified 313 thousand former household members who… -
Census Offices Told To Monitor Social Media 24/7The RGI has also proposed a tableau for next year's Republic Day parade: Reports NEW DELHI: The Registrar General of India (RGI) has directed Census directorates in all states and Union Territories to establish round-the-clock social media… -
Reynolds-Jackson census outreach bill advances in Assembly committeeLegislation would establish a state commission, office, and trust fund to prepare for the 2030 Census By Joe Seewald, October 19 2026 3:49 pm With the 2030 Census less than four years away, New Jersey lawmakers are moving to establish a… -
Fall census is not a business model: How to rethink budgetsUniversity Business Fall census is not a business model: How to rethink budgets -
Greek cave census reveals 113 snail species and hidden endemismBioengineer.org Subject of Research: The diversity, distribution and conservation of terrestrial gastropods in Greek caves Article Title: What`s crawling in the dark? An annotated list of gastropods in Greek caves News Source: Margaret… - Census profile: Congressional District 1, NYCensus data for Congressional District 1, NY (pop. 782,097), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more. Find data for this place Hover for margins of error and contextual data. - about 10 percent higher…
- Census profile: Congressional District 19, NYCensus data for Congressional District 19, NY (pop. 776,282), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more. Find data for this place Hover for margins of error and contextual data. - a little higher than…
- Census profile: Congressional District 4, NYCensus data for Congressional District 4, NY (pop. 777,491), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more. Find data for this place Hover for margins of error and contextual data. - a little higher than the…
- Census profile: Congressional District 21, NYCensus data for Congressional District 21, NY (pop. 767,674), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more. Find data for this place Hover for margins of error and contextual data. - about 10 percent higher…
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Proposed census rules would exclude noncitizens and snowbirds, experts sayBOSTON – U.S. Census Bureau proposals would exclude a large noncitizen population in Massachusetts, change whether the state’s “snowbird” population is counted, and cause “severe inaccuracies” in population data in 2030, a local research…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.