Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
32%December 31
- June 30, 202732%▲ 2
- December 3132%▲ 3
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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
The odds
66%Samuel Alito
- Samuel Alito66%
- Clarence Thomas45%▼ 1
- John Roberts17%▼ 3
- Sonia Sotomayor8%
- Elena Kagan5%▲ 1
- Amy Coney Barrett5%▲ 1
- Ketanji Brown Jackson4%
- Brett Kavanaugh3%
- Neil Gorsuch2%
How the odds have moved
Samuel Alito: 66% on Oct 20, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Alito | 66% | 65¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 52.7K | |
| Clarence Thomas | 45% | ▼ 1 | 43¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 36.4K |
| John Roberts | 17% | ▼ 3 | 14¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 6.3K |
| Sonia Sotomayor | 8% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 11.7K | |
| Elena Kagan | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 81.00 |
| Amy Coney Barrett | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.2K |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 371 | |
| Brett Kavanaugh | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 8.00 | |
| Neil Gorsuch | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 14.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas
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Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s… -
Second Amendment fight moves beyond guns with Supreme Court poised for big rulingNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Two federal court… -
Switchblade, body armor rulings reveal stakes in Supreme Court AR-15 showdownNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Switchblade, body armor… -
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with… -
Supreme Court justice turns on her own court with dire warning about American democracyAmericans interviewed on Capitol Hill were split over whether the Supreme Court of the United States should expand as Congress introduces proposals to make reforms to its current size. (Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital) Supreme Court… -
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s effort to restrict transgender treatment for prison inmatesWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court rebuffed the Trump administration’s emergency petition to immediately revive its restrictions on transgender treatment for inmates in federal prisons on Wednesday. President Trump’s team had requested the… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
Supreme Court hands Trump a rare loss on transgender prison care policyThe Supreme Court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from suspending hormone therapy and other treatments for transgender Americans in federal prisons, a rare win for transgender rights at the conservative high court. The court… -
5 Superb Clarence Thomas Opinions To Mark His 35 Years At SCOTUSThe Federalist has compiled five of Thomas’ greatest opinions to commemorate his 35 years on the nation’s highest bench. It may not be hard to believe, but Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas just hit yet another major career milestone… -
Supreme court blocks Trump’s bid to restrict gender care for trans prisonersDecision stands in contrast to recent trans rights actions from court that often sides with Trump administration The US supreme court went against Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday, refusing to allow the immediate enforcement of… -
Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict some medical treatments for transgender inmatesUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 11:35 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday left intact a lower court decision that blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a new Bureau of Prisons policy that would end…
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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Aug 5, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 8
- Before Apr 1, 202727%▼ 5
- Before Jul 1, 202743%▲ 2
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202762%▲ 3
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Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
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Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions